Birding Forecast - MidAtlantic

This blog has moved

2010-03-09T10:38:00.001-05:00

This blog is now located at http://birdingforecast.blogspot.com/.
You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds, or you may click here.

For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to
http://www.birdcapemay.org/bfma.

Birding forecast on hiatus... but don't fret!

2009-09-02T10:53:00.002-04:00

The birding forecast has been canceled for now, but you can find out what's going on over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on www.woodcreeper.com, where I'll be posting the nightly radar each morning at 6:40am.

Good Birding

David

Summer is here! (well, sort of)

2009-06-06T08:46:00.002-04:00

While at any given moment some birds somewhere are migrating, the spring passage of long-distance migrant land birds over the mid-Atlantic has most certainly tapered off. Most of these birds have arrived or are arriving at their breeding grounds across the US and Canada. Until next time, have a great summer!

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 6/1 - 6/5

2009-06-01T16:08:00.003-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wow... I can't believe we're already in June! It seems like just yesterday when I was cursing the cold as I walked my dog and could only pick out the singing White-throated Sparrows over the howling wind. Since then the trees have leafed out, The World Series of Birding has come and gone, and the dawn chorus in the woods behind my house, so recently composed of migrant warblers, is now almost exclusively comprised of breeders. I say 'almost' because my buddy Ben knocked on my door this morning to tell me about a 'life bird' he saw while conducting his annual breeding bird surveys. The bird he saw? A Mourning Warbler! Now, for the last three days I've been in Austin, PA, conducting a Bioblitz at the Austin Dam property, and have seen more Mourning Warblers than I had in all the years leading up to this weekend (they breed pretty heavily in that part of PA). I came back last night, ecstatic, and couldn't wait to tell Ben about the great Mourning show I saw just five hours away from central NJ... well, before I could get a word out Ben had described to me a very similar encounter, only five minutes from my doorstep. Of course I was excited for Ben, but man did that take a bit of excitement out of my story!

So, migration has clearly slowed down with most migrants already having reached their breeding grounds, or very nearly so. It is for that reason this forecast will serve as the last 'regular' update until Fall. As I have in the past, I will occasionally use this space to post interesting tidbits of information regarding migration between now and September, so please come back and visit!

and now we take you back to your regularly scheduled forecast...

Monday Night

Another front will approach the mid-Atlantic from the west on Monday, which will increase southerly flow on Monday night and trigger migration across the region.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night the front will extend across New Jersey, resulting in winds switching to westerly and then northwesterly by Tuesday night. This, coupled with precipitation, will minimize any migration into the region on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday the front will back up and stall over the region, begin to fall apart a bit, and allow the southerly winds to build in again. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday night which could cause some localized concentrations of migrants.

Thursday Night

On Thursday the remnant front will move east into the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to build in once again, turning winds northerly and reducing any possibility of nocturnal migration.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

It looks like Tuesday should be a nice day for birding. With a new crop of birds scheduled to arrive, and no precipitation expected until later in the day, hitting your favorite migrant trap would be a productive way to spend your morning.

Wednesday Morning

Again, precipitation is forecast for after 11am, so getting out early would be key on Wednesday. Little change is expected from Tuesday morning, so head for areas with high breeder diversity, or check out the tried and true spring migrant spots for birds leftover from yesterday.

Thursday Morning

We could see some localized concentrations on Thursday morning, as birds migrating on Wednesday night encounter thunderstorms en route. Check the radar at the top of this page during the night on Wednesday to see whether birds are flying into heavy precipitation, and whether they're continuing north or landing prematurely. If the latter is apparent, then head to for birding locations at the intersection of birds and thunderstorms, otherwise go for the tried and true spring migrant trap of your choice.

Friday Morning

Friday is looking beautiful in terms of weather. Since nothing is expected to move on Thursday night, you can base your decision on where to go on the reports from the previous day.

If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding, and see you in the Fall!

David

Tomorrow is June 1st! When will all of this migration madness end??

2009-05-31T19:00:00.002-04:00

Just a heads-up that I didn't forget about you. I've been away from any Internet connection and just returned to civilization minutes ago. During the next 24 hours I'll be posting the last forecast for the spring, so stay tuned!

Good Birding

David

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/25 - 5/29

2009-05-25T22:51:00.002-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Monday Night

Winds will start off easterly as a warm front slowly moves north into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night. A moderate level of migration is expected in the southern part of the region, just south of the warm front, while light migration is expected further north where the winds are more northeasterly.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the warm front will have backed up over the mid-Atlantic, increasing the chance of precipitation and turning winds ESE. Given the more southerly winds, especially at 3000 feet, the chance of migration is looking pretty good.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, turning winds southerly and increasing the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday night. If thunderstorms hold off until after sunset, we could see heavy migration coupled with the chance of fallout conditions wherever late-night thunderstorms are most intense.

Thursday Night

The latest front will take awhile to cross the mid-Atlantic, which means another night of southerly flow on Thursday. This time, though, it's looking like winds will be southwesterly through early Friday morning when the cold front passes to our east and the winds turn northwest. This bodes well both for heavy migration and for stalling birds over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Well, if you don't like rain, Tuesday morning is looking like your best bet for birding during the work week. Not a whole lot of new arrivals are expected on Tuesday but as is typical of the season, there are lots of birds around anyway. With west winds on tap for Tuesday, interior sites will be the best bet. Garret Mountain might be good, but locations with higher breeding bird diversity should be better. A place I've been meaning to check out is Black River WMA, in Morris County, near Chester, NJ. This place is great for breeders, it's inland, and also attracts many migrants. Bill Boyle has a section in his book A Guide to Bird Finding in New Jersey, and the section on Black River just happens to be available for free on Google Books. Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/qmnl53 Of course, if you don't have that book, and you go birding more than once a year in New Jersey, you ought to buy a copy. My copy has lost the cover and most of the binding, is stained throughout with coffee and dead mosquitoes, and covered in scribbled field notes. Along with my New Jersey road atlas, this is my most important asset when birding in the Garden State.

Wednesday Morning

Looks like rain on Wednesday, but who said birding should be a dry event? Expect a new influx of migrants to arrive on Wednesday morning, and with winds out of the southwest we should see the highest densities at inland migrant traps. Garret Mountain would be a good bet, as would any of the spring hotspots on either side of the Delaware River.

Thursday Morning

Heavy migration into and out of the mid-Atlantic is expected for Thursday morning. Keep an eye on the weather to see if heavy thunderstorms have an effect on the migrants en route, because if they do, we could experience some localized fallout conditions. Right now it's too soon to predict, so make sure to follow along on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) where I'll be posting live updates during the night.

Friday Morning

Thursday night will be the last sizable flight before the northwest winds on Friday morning shut things down for awhile. The good news? Friday morning will see plenty of new birds and the return of clear skies and nice weather. Right now the forecast is for winds to be light, which would really make finding birds that much easier. Since birds will be arriving on WSW winds, expect coastal migrant traps to be best on Friday. Sandy Hook is an obvious choice for New Jersey, and Cape May can be great as well.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/21 - 5/25

2009-05-21T21:36:00.000-04:00

Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday Nights

Right now the mid-Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure system, bounded to the south by a low over Florida and associated front creating strong ENE flow across the southeastern US. This front has effectively become a barrier to any birds in the southeast that might want to migrate north. Over the mid-Atlantic, though, the high pressure system has set up a light to moderate south/southwesterly flow, which will trigger several nights of migration from the Carolinas and Virginia all the way up into the northeastern US. Clear skies are on tap until the end of the weekend, and even then, we're not expecting much. Therefore migration will be heavy and well dispersed across the landscape.

Birding Forecast

Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday Morning

Right now the birding forecast is looking pretty predictable... of course, all of this can change in a couple of days. Winds are forecast to be light to moderate out of the south/southwest, and coupled with clear skies, we should see some widespread migration across the mid-Atlantic throughout the weekend. Because no strong crosswinds nor heavy precipitation are forecast, you can expect the best birding conditions to be found in established spring migrant traps such as Higbee's Beach, Cape May (NJ; best on WSW winds), Belleplain State Forest, Garret Mountain, Sandy Hook (best on WSW winds) and Central Park (NY).

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/17 - 5/21

2009-05-17T17:58:00.001-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

The high pressure system that built in behind Saturday night's front will continue to blow northwest winds over the mid-Atlantic. No migration is expected.

Monday Night

High pressure will begin to weaken as the mid-Atlantic gets squeezed between a cold front to the west, and a strong area of low pressure over Florida. Some models show winds actually turning south on Monday night, while others show a persistent, but light, northwest. For now we're only expecting a light migration on variable winds.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the front to our west will move close enough to set up more southerly flow, and therefore trigger moderate to heavy migration.

Wednesday Night

High pressure will continue to dominate on Wednesday night, with light southwest winds triggering another night of migration.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

The latest reports show good movement of Catharus thrushes and Blackpoll warblers, both of which are "later" spring migrants, and a sign that we're entering the latter part of the season. With little moving on Sunday night, a good rule of thumb is to head where good birding conditions have been recently reported.

Tuesday- Thursday Morning

Conditions after Monday should be relatively consistent, with light and variable winds dominating, and no precipitation on tap for most of the region. Given how light the winds are forecast, birds will tend to be widespread across the region. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the best results this coming week.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/12 - 5/16

2009-05-12T21:25:00.008-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

Winds will be out of the northwest as high pressure continues over the mid-Atlantic, but still light enough to allow these migration-ready birds to head north into and out of the region.

Wednesday Night

A strong cold front is approaching from the west, and on Wednesday the winds will begin to turn southeasterly in anticipation. Expect widespread migration from Virginia north to Maine.

Thursday Night

The front arrives on Thursday, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Precipitation is forecast for early Friday morning so we could see some concentration in northern NJ and southern NY as birds hit the front. Overall expect heavy migration across the entire region on Thursday night.

Friday Night

Updated 5/15/09: The precipitation has been removed from the forecast as the front that crossed the region last night has dissipated today. Expect moderate to heavy levels of migration tonight on southeast winds and clear skies.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Moderate migration into and out of the region will result in a 'thinning out' of the migrant density that we've been experiencing since the weekend. Still, there will be plenty of birds around and the spring migrant traps will provide the best birding conditions after a night of widespread migration.

Thursday Morning

Southeast winds and clear skies mean widespread migration across the region. Tried and true spring migrant traps will be best on Thursday with coastal locations being a good choice given the easterly component to the wind.

Friday Morning

Heavy migration on south winds coupled with a 70% chance of precipitation bodes well for birding on Friday. Expect concentrations to be highest wherever the storms build after midnight and intercept migrating birds.

Update 5/14/09:Thanks to Don Freiday for the email regarding the wind forecast for tonight. As Don noted, winds over Patterson, NJ are forecast to turn NW between 3 and 5 AM Friday morning. This switch in winds will be accompanied by some precipitation, which together will likely lead to fallout conditions. If this scenario plays out, we could see a fallout at Garret Mountain, as well as other areas located along the frontal boundary. Also, with strong west winds building in late tonight, expect coastal hotspots to be hopping tomorrow. The front will not make its way across the entire region, instead it will retreat and dissipate on Friday, so don't worry about precipitation along the coast tomorrow. So, Cape May, Island Beach SP, Sandy Hook (especially), and locations along the frontal boundary with Garret being a likely candidate, will all be good places to be tomorrow morning.

Use the radar at the top of this page to see how and when they plays out, or follow me on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) for updates on Thursday night.

Saturday Morning

Clear skies, southwest winds aloft and southeast winds at the surface means migrants will be widespread by Saturday morning. Hit the tried and true migration hotspots on Saturday morning, which should be easy for everyone down in Cape May for the Spring Weekend. All of Cape May will be good territory to cover, but Belleplain will provide a great mix of both migrants and breeders. Additionally, its proximity to the Delaware Bay shore means you can experience many of the great habitats the region has to offer all with minimium travel time.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Forecast Coming Soon!

2009-05-12T11:05:00.003-04:00

Oops! we're still recovering from the World Series of Birding and somehow allowed the forecast to go 'stale'. Check back later today for an update and outlook for the rest of the week.

Good Birding

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/6 - 5/10

2009-05-06T15:48:00.004-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

World Series of Birding Migration Weather Forecast

How's everyone doing on this soggy scout week? Well, the bright side is that the worst of the precipitation is over, and you'll only have to deal with intermittent precipitation as a stationary front backs over us on Wednesday night, and then a series of lows and cold fronts cross the region through the weekend. Each of these events, though, promises to bring more migrants into the mid-Atlantic and increases the likelihood of lots of migrants being around on Saturday.

Wednesday Night

Wednesday night's stationary front will bring some threat of thunderstorms and widespread precipitation up from the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds will be light out of the south, turning southeast by midnight. Heavy migration is expected for the mid-Atlantic and the addition of precipitation may cause migrants to concentrate locally by morning. See the birding forecast below for details.

Thursday Night

The next round of showers will make their way eastward on Thursday night as a weak low pressure system moves toward the coast. Southwest winds will help motivate the eager migrant and we should expect a moderate to heavy push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. West winds into the early hours on Friday will increase the chance of migrants piling up along the coast by morning.

Friday Night

Things clear up during the day on Friday, but a quick moving front will bring a chance of wetness to the region overnight. South winds early on Friday night will again trigger migration into the mid-Atlantic, while by daybreak winds will turn southeasterly favoring inland migrant traps for the World Series of Birding.

Saturday Night

The next cold front is scheduled to move into the region on Saturday, setting up southeasterly flow in advance of the front on Saturday night. This should allow another flight into and out of the region before high pressure builds in on Sunday.

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Migrants + thunderstorms = eager birders.

Right now the models are uncertain as to the amount or intensity of the expected precipitation, but anytime there's a good chance for heavy migration and thunderstorms, you should keep an eye on the radar. Since the precipitation is making its way from the south, we will likely see two migration events take place tonight: the first to the north, moving unimpeded ahead of the front, and the second from the south, migrating into the front. This will likely result in a net loss of migrants in the north (as they move on) and a concentration of migrants in the south (as they hit inclement weather). Therefore, the best birding conditions on Thursday morning will be just south of, or within the, frontal boundary. That said, you'll be best to check the radar tonight and see how this plays out... or follow along on Twitter where I'll be posting regular updates throughout the night (hint: you can read my latest Twitter posts by using the links under the map on this page).

Friday Morning

Despite the precipitation on tap for Thursday evening, it's not looking very intense or organized so far. The one factor that looks to make things interesting, though, is the west wind. With the wind turning more westerly on Friday morning migrants will be pushed toward the coast increasing densities at all coastal migrant traps including Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park, and Brigantine NWR.

Saturday Morning

It's GAME TIME! So if the World Series is the Fall Classic, is the WSOB the Spring Classic? I think it sounds good... I'm gonna run with it.

Southeasterly flow on Friday night will bring new migrants into the mid-Atlantic for Saturday. While the southeast winds will favor inland migrant traps, most locations should see new birds on Saturday morning regardless. Right now it doesn't look like the precipitation will have an appreciable effect on causing birds to land prematurely, so the tried and true migrant traps will be your best bet. Light southeast winds are forecast during the day on Saturday which would bode well for a decent raptor flight.

Sunday Morning

Okay, I've moved out of the bedroom to write this last part. Yeah, if you've got enough cojones to go birding on Mother's Day (or you happen to be a mother, and therefore can dictate whatever happens on Mother's Day), then you'll probably be in good shape for some nice migrant activity. Southeast winds on Saturday night will bring the next push of migrants into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Those of you down in Cape May for the WSOB banquet might hit the Delaware Bay Shore for some new arrivals, while most inland migrant traps across the region will see some good birding conditions as well. Me? Um, I'll be doing some early morning local patch birding (read: "walking the dog") and then it's flowers and pancakes, and occasionally birding by ear from the kitchen window.

Good luck on a safe and fun World Series of Birding!

David La Puma (member of the Rutgers Scarlet Knight-herons)

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/2 - 5/6

2009-05-02T09:59:00.002-04:00

Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Saturday Night

A strong cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with minimal fanfare in terms of precipitation. Winds will turn northwesterly and then westerly as high pressure builds in behind it. Expect little migration on Saturaday night for most of the region, given the sub-optimal winds. The exception to this might be the southern end of the region (VA) where the configuration of the front and the southwest winds associated with it could trigger a sizable movement.

Sunday Night

The cold front which passed on Saturday will stall over the Delmarva on Sunday, increasing the chance of precipitation for the region. Despite the precipitation, winds will turn SSE on Sunday afternoon and likely trigger the next push into and out of the region.

Monday Night

By Monday the latest front will have stalled further south of the Delmarva Peninsula, acting as a barrier to migrants making their way from points south. Winds are forecast to turn northerly which should preclude any birds from migrating.

Tuesday Night

On Tuesday the stalled front will dip further south, freeing the mid-Atlantic from the heavy storm activity, but not from the northeasterly winds. Again, this will preclude any migration for Tuesday night as birds wait for some better conditions.

Birding Forecast

Sunday Morning

With little expected to move over most of the region, conditions should remain consistent from previous days (which have been excellent). As birds will be moving into more optimal foraging habitat, head for areas where breeding bird diversity tends to be high, such as Belleplain SF and Black River Wildlife Management Area in New Jersey (click here for a map), or coastal shorebirds locales such as Bombay Hook NWR (DE), Brigantine NWR (NJ), and along the Delaware Bay Shore.

Monday Morning

Some birds will move into and out of the region on Sunday night, as winds will be blowing from the southeast. Spring migrant traps will be the best bet on Monday, with the wind favoring those located inland. Garret Mountain is an obvious choice, but locations along the Delaware river should also be productive on Monday.

Tuesday & Wednesday Morning

With no migration expected on Monday and Tuesday nights, conditions will remain stable from Monday morning. Again, this is a good time to hit some of the diverse breeding grounds across the region as many species have already established territories and more show up each day.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/28 - 5/2

2009-04-28T12:56:00.003-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"All I know she sang a little while and then flew on"
-Robert Hunter

Tuesday Night

High pressure continues to dominate the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it warm southerly flow and more birds than you can shake a stick at (okay, I admit, I've never tried to find out how many birds I could shake a stick at, and if I caught you shaking a stick at birds, I might just ask you to stop... or at least look at you funny). Winds will continue out of the south tonight until the cold front crosses our area after midnight, at which point winds will turn northwesterly and the chance of precipitation will increase. Expect a moderate flight tonight, owing mostly to the lack of migration-ready birds across the region, a result of four nights of continuous flights!

Wednesday Night

The cold front will cross our region on Wedensday morning, and high pressure will build in behind it once again. Winds will turn southeasterly on Wednesday night, which will likely trigger moderate to heavy migration. Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: The warm front to our south, initially expected to prevent birds from moving north into the mid-Atlantic, is going to take a bit longer to arrive. Therefore I have changed the forecast to reflect the increased influx of new birds.

Thursday Night

On Thursday the warm front will make its way north into the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it plenty of rain and diminishing winds. Depending on the amount of precipitation, it's possible that we could see a light push into and out of the region, but the probability is looking low.

Friday Night

On Friday night the cold front will have pushed far enough to the east to set up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Expect a big flight on Friday night. Some models show precipitation arriving in northern NJ on Saturday morning, which could limit the amount of northbound traffic and cause some pileups (of birds, not cars) along the frontal boundary. Right now it's too hard to predict, but otherwise the models show clear skies along the east coast for Friday night.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Many birds have begun to set up territories in their breeding grounds through the mid-Atlantic, and so most diverse habitats have a nice selection of birds actively singing and courting regardless of migration. With precipitation arriving around midnight, typically the peak of nocturnal migration, it's worth checking to see how the migration 'cloud' reacts to the presence of rain and/or change in wind direction. Use the live radar map at the top of this page to check it out as it happens. Regardless, the change in winds should act to hold some birds in the mid-Atlantic, and spring hotspots are always a good choice in these situations. The top of Garret Mountain at first light can be a wonderful place to try out your skills with flight calls as birds redirect up the mountain after seeing the likes of West Patterson (great for Peruvian food, not so good for bird habitat). Winds will be northerly throughout the day, so don't expect much in terms of a raptor flight.

Thursday Morning

Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: It looks like we'll see another influx and exodus of birds in and out of the mid-Atlantic for Thursday morning. Rain isn't expected until later in the day, so birds will be widespread. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the highest diversity and abundance.

Friday Morning

Again, not much expected to move on Thursday night, so expect little change on Friday morning.

Saturday Morning

Alright, after two lackluster nights of little-to-no migration, Friday night should open the door to some new arrivals for Saturday morning. Again, check to see whether the rain and wind stopped migrants en route by using the radar at the top of this page. Right now the precipitation forecast is for light rain, although the wind shift may prove to be a more important factor. With most of the east coast under clear skies, hit the tried-and-true spring migration hotspots on Saturday morning.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/24 - 4/28

2009-04-24T13:38:00.003-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"Get ready to ruuuuummmmmmbbbbbllllleeeeee"

The biggest flights of the spring are lining up this weekend, and with the climbing temperatures we should have some excellent birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic. With a strong cold front extending from Canada down the Ohio Valley, southwesterly winds are forecast to dominate the region through Tuesday. While the result will likely favor the birds over the birder, spring migrant traps will be hopping with new diversity and greater abundance than they have thus far.

Friday Night

These are the nights that we dream about as the winter comes to a close. If you checked the radar last night, you saw widespread migration from the Gulf Coast up into the Great Lakes region, and from Florida up into northern Virginia. The only place relatively absent of migration was the northern mid-Atlantic and the northeast, owing to the persistence of northwesterly winds. Well, these pesky winds have moved out of the region and the southerly flow has begun. Expect migration over the mid-Atlantic to be heavy and widespread on Friday night.

Saturday Night

And the beat goes on... Saturday night will see moderate southwesterly winds, as the low pressure and associated cold front remain to our west. The migration superhighway continues to bring new birds to the mid-Atlantic, while allowing those who are migration-ready to head further north.

Sunday Night

As the low pressure moves further east, and the high pressure dominating our region heads south, we should see winds turning more westerly, and possibly a bit northwest. For now most models predict west winds, and so I'm thinking migration will prevail again on Sunday night.

Monday Night

Here we go again! By Monday it looks like the low stalls again to our west and high pressure kicks back in for the east coast, driving those winds back out of the southwest. Expect another night of heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

As I said, this series of nights will favor the bird over the birder. Clear skies and a strong tailwind ensure that birds can maximize their nocturnal flight towards the breeding ground. The good news for birders? The sheer volume of birds moving on Friday night will guarantee a good birding day at any spring migrant trap on Saturday morning. With a little west in the wind, coastal hotspots will be a good bet, but all spots should hold new birds regardless. These next three days should be great for diurnal raptor migration, so be sure to keep an eye to the sky during the day.

Sunday Morning

More migration = more birds. As our winter friends clear out, our migrant breeders and seasonal visitors will be arriving in good numbers. Again, stick to the traditional spring migrant traps for the greatest diversity and density.

Monday Morning

West winds on Sunday night should push migrants toward the coast. Cape May, Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook are all good bets in NJ, and are the best places for a raptor flight on Monday.

Tuesday Morning

More unabated migration on Monday night, coupled with southerly winds, means birds will be well dispersed across the landscape on Tuesday. Belleplain, Garret Mountain, the Great Swamp, the Meadowlands; these are all good places within NJ to check out on Tuesday. Again, a good raptor flight is expected for Tuesday as well.

Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/20 - 4/24 (UPDATED)

2009-04-20T17:41:00.006-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

This past weekend made clear that spring migration has transitioned into high gear. Winds at high altitudes (3000+ feet), where migrating landbirds tend to fly, were strong and northerly; not ideal for migration. On the surface, though, we had several nights of either southerly, or southwesterly winds, which allowed for birds to fly low and take advantage of a tailwind. On any given night in March I would not have expected to see birds take off under such conditions, but no that we're midway through April, with hormones a-raging, birds are making their bid for the breeding grounds. It's every bird for themselves!

Over the weekend we saw a whole suite of Neotropical migrants show up in Southern New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and parts of New York. The more migratory ruby-crowned kinglets have begun to outnumber their golden-crowned counterparts; In South Jersey, northern waterthrushes, having returned to the breeding grounds over the last two weeks, are now being joined by ovenbirds, and prothonotary warblers. Some early migrants such as black-and-white warbler, blue-headed vireo, warbling vireo, black-throated green warbler, and hooded warbler have also made appearances across the mid-Atlantic. Judging by the weather forecast, we should be seeing more of these and other Neotropical migrants in the coming week.

Monday Night

Winds at all altitudes will have a southeasterly component on Monday night, increasing the chance of migration into the mid-Atlantic, though severe thunderstorms across PA and NJ will be prevent much of anything from moving in or out. Heavy migration from Virginia into the Delmarva and as far north as Cape May NJ will be in effect.

Tuesday Night

The forecast is again favorable for widespread migration on Tuesday night, as the front pushes toward the east coast. Southwesterly flow and clear(er) skies should trigger a big flight into and out-of the region, with the possibility of some disruptions due to isolated but strong thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night the front and most of the thunderstorm activity will have moved out, and the new forecast shows winds turning northwesterly as high pressure builds over the region. Update Wed. @ 9:04pm: Winds have not turned entirely NW, and so there appears a chance for some migration over the region.

Thursday Night

Northwest winds continue through Thursday night, and therefore keep birds stationary until Friday night when the next front approaches.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Thunderstorm activity may cause some localized concentrations on Tuesday morning, limited primarily to the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey. Belleplain, already teaming with newly arrived breeders, will be a good place to find diversity, as will the Cape May peninsula. Keep an eye to the sky on Tuesday, as the strong southerly winds should trigger a raptor flight during the daylight hours.

Wednesday Morning

Quite the contrary to Tuesday, surface winds on Wednesday will be blowing out of the southwest. This should bring more birds to the coast for Wednesday morning, but migration will be widespread enough to impact most locations. Again, Wednesday should be another decent day for raptors, although cooler temps and cloud cover will probably limit thermal activity.

Thursday Morning

Updated Wed. @ 9:04pm: Some new migrants should be present on Thursday morning, as winds on Wednesday night remain light and southwesterly. Birds will be dispersed across the landscape as no strong winds or precipitation are forecast to influence the migration trajectory. Tried and true spring hotspots will be the best bet. Get out there and see some birds!

Friday Morning

Expect little to no change from Thursday given the lack of migration potential on Thursday night.

Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/18 - 4/19

2009-04-18T22:54:00.003-04:00

Birds are on the way tonight as winds turned westerly across the mid-Atlantic. Spring migration hotspots across the region will see new birds on Sunday morning with higher densities along the east coast given the westerly winds. Neotropical migrants have begun to turn up in Southern New Jersey, so this next wave promises to bring added diversity to the region. Make sure to bring some rain gear, though, as wetter weather will move in by midday tomorrow.

Good Birding!

David

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/15 - 4/19 (UPDATED)

2009-04-15T14:38:00.007-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"One [front] gone and another to go, my old buddy you're moving much too slow"

A series of lows are forecast for the mid-Atlantic between mid-week and the end of the weekend, unfortunately, though, it looks as if the south winds necessary for a big flight will be absent until after the weekend.

Thursday Night Updated

While winds aloft are strong from the northeast, surface winds on Thursday night are light and southerly. This, in turn, has triggered some migration over the mid-Atlantic. Whether this will continue on Friday night remains to be seen, as winds are forecast to turn W at the surface and remain NW aloft.

Wednesday - Saturday Night

Low pressure will move from over our heads (where it is soaking us), offshore to our east, as high pressure builds in behind it with drier air from the northwest. The key show-stopper here is the northwest wind. Expect no significant migration events during this time period. Looking ahead, there is another low pressure system forecast to reach our area on Sunday or Monday, which will bring with it the first southerly winds and undoubtedly a big influx of birds... stay tuned!

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning Updated

Since the winds are blowing out of the southeast on Thursday night, expect inland migrant traps to experience the greatest influx of new birds on Friday. Garret Mountain as well as hotspots along both sides of the Delaware River, look promising for tomorrow, and the weather will be beautiful for getting out there and seeing what shows up.

Thursday - Sunday Morning

The birding conditions will remain stable for the next few days, as no birds are expected to leave or arrive given the weather forecast. As far as comfort is concerned, the dreary weather will clear out of here by late tonight, making way for some gorgeously sunny days in the 60's and maybe even 70's on Friday and Saturday. This is an excellent time to brush up on your birding-by-ear skills. While the woods are full of more common species, getting in there pre-dawn can be a wonderful experience and allow you to study bird song in all of its variation. Besides, by this time next week we'll have several more species joining the woodland ensemble!

You can follow me on Twitter, using the link at the top of this page, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/10 - 4/14 (UPDATED)

2009-04-10T15:05:00.006-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Birds are here, and more are on the way tonight, even before the weekend kicks into full swing. Things will then taper off quickly after the next front passes and it'll be Tuesday night before another big push into the mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

Southwesterly flow began on Thursday night, but as I was visiting some crazy family members in Long Island, I had no opportunity to update the forecast. For that I apologize. Friday night should be the bigger show of the two nights though, as the next cold front presses eastward and the winds along the front turn due-south. Expect heavy migration into the mid-Atlantic region with heavy precipitation moving in after 2am. This should limit the amount of bird traffic to our north and possibly ground some migrants en route.

Saturday, Sunday & Monday Nights

The next cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic on Saturday morning, and northwest winds will build in behind it. This will effectively shut down migration over the region until the next front approaches on Tuesday. By Monday night, though, southerly flow will return to the Southeastern US and the southernmost parts of the mid-Atlantic. Therefore I have updated the forecast flag to yellow, indicating some migration activity into the region. The real fun will happen on Tuesday night, but that will have to wait until the next forecast.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

Birds is the word for Saturday morning... birds, and rain, that is. Morning showers should help concentrate migrants in the mid-Atlantic region. It's always a good idea to check the radar and see the configuration of the cold front relative to the 'migration cloud'. You can do this right here on this website using the interactive map at the top of the page. Another way to check is, assuming migrants are widespread across the region (which they should be), check the weather to see at which locations the rain began after midnight. Migration peaks around midnight, so these locations should have the highest concentrations of birds due to premature grounding.

Don't pass up birding on Saturday just because of the weather as most models show the precipitation moving out by late morning. The Delaware Bay shore (NJ) and Garret Mountain (NJ) are two very good destinations for Saturday morning.

Sunday & Monday Morning

Once the cold front passes on Saturday the mid-Atlantic will experience cool dry air coming in from the northwest. Nice weather and new arrivals means good birding conditions as migrants will stick around through Tuesday given the northerly winds.

Tuesday Morning

With southerly flow expected to increase over the Southeastern US, expect new birds in the southernmost parts of the region, such as Virginia and possibly even southern Delaware for Tuesday morning.

For rapid migration alerts you can follow me on Twitter (link at the top of this page), and for finding out what's being seen today in Cape May you can check the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/5 - 4/9

2009-04-05T22:19:00.007-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

As low pressure moves into the northeast on Sunday night, southerly flow will dominate the mid-Atlantic. This will trigger widespread migration into and over the region.

Monday Night

The strong low pressure system is expected to pass over the region on Monday, causing the winds to turn northwest and shut down migration, over land, that is. Something interesting will be happening offshore, as a strong southerly flow will form over the entire east coast, from Florida to Maine.

Tuesday - Wednesday Night

West winds will build in behind the front on Tuesday night and continue through Thursday. Expect little to no migration, although any birds on the move will likely be pushed towards the coast

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Migration into the region will be both heavy and widespread. Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers have already begun popping up over the last two days, and Neotropical migrants have been arriving along the Gulf Coast and Florida for a few weeks now, so spring migration is well underway! Spring hotspots will be the best bet for Monday morning, with the Delaware Bay shore a good pick for southern NJ, and Garret Mountain an exellent choice for central NJ.

Tuesday Morning

Expect little to change from Monday morning, except maybe on the coast. The strong southerly winds offshore should act as a conveyor belt of pelagic migrants. Scoters, Gannets, and the like should be moving in high numbers, and with the belt reaching as far south as Florida, we could get some more southerly species off of the mid-Atlantic. Get your scopes and head to the coast!

Wednesday- Thursday Morning

With the west winds dominating the region, and the strong northerly flow having moved even farther offshore, expect little in the way of new birds.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/31 - 4/4

2009-03-31T22:15:00.003-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

Migration traffic is heavy overhead as I type this. Winds are blowing about 15kts at 3500 feet elevation, suggesting that birds will be pushed inland as they land in the morning.

Wednesday Night

South winds will continue on Wednesday night, as the next cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. Precipitation is also expected, and could be heavy at times. This may limit the number of migrants taking flight on Wednesday, but if a substantial number do take off we could see localized concentrations on Thursday morning.

Thursday Night

Winds will turn variable on Thursday night as the low moves north into Canada, and the next one approaches from the southwest. With rain and uncooperative winds in the forecast, expect little in terms of migration.

Friday Night

It all begins again on Friday night, when the next low approaches from the south setting up southerly flow over the mid-Atlantic. There is a chance of precipitation on Friday night, but it's looking minimal at best. Expect a good flight under these conditions.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

We should see some new birds on the ground Wednesday morning, with the southeast winds favoring inland migrant traps. Belleplain, the Great Swamp, and Garret Mountain should be good choices for Wednesday morning, and make sure to keep an eye to the sky for migrating raptors.

Thursday Morning

The conditions for Thursday will depend on the amount and strength of precipitation on Wednesday night. If birds do take off, the strong southerly winds should disperse them more evenly across the entire mid-Atlantic than on Wednesday morning. If birds take of, but are met with heavy precipitation during flight, these zones of interception will be key places to visit and see what has grounded. Again, with southerly flow continuing throughout the day, keep an eye up for migrating raptors as well.

Friday Morning

No migration is expected between Thursday and Friday, so conditions should remain consistent from Thursday morning.

Saturday Morning

The next push on Friday night should produce new birds on Saturday morning. Right now it looks as if the winds will be out of the southwest which will increase the number of birds across the entire region while favoring coastal migration hotspots.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/25 - 3/29

2009-03-25T14:56:00.002-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Spring migration has been underway now for about about a month, and the early signs of Neotropical arrivals have begun to make landfall along the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula. It'll be a few weeks before we see these birds in any appreciable numbers, but it's fun to think about in the meantime. While the superhighway between the Yucatan and Gulf states has been very active over the last week, we're finally getting some conducive weather to bringing birds into (and beyond) the mid-Atlantic. High pressure which had been dominating the region, will move east over the Atlantic on Wednesday and make way for the next cold front arriving on Thursday. This will bring southerly flow on both Wednesday and Thursday nights, and set us up for an influx of new birds from the south. Precipitation will begin late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday, eventually tapering off by Friday morning when high pressure builds back in behind the front. Before you can say "hey, where did the south winds go?", they'll be back, as a second low-pressure system arrives on Saturday.

Wednesday Night

Light southerly winds are forecast across the southeast and mid-Atlantic US on Wednesday evening, opening up the region for a moderate pulse of early migrants. Coastal states will be under lighter winds with an easterly component, whereas states to the west (such as western Pennsylvania) will experience stronger southerly flow and therefore more migrant traffic.

Thursday Night

As far as winds are concerned, by Thursday night the conditions should be optimal across the entire mid-Atlantic region (steady southerlies). The real determining factor will be the distribution and intensity of precipitation. The current forecast shows precipitation to be widespread but light across the mid-Atlantic, therefore setting the stage for favorable migration conditions.

Friday Night

By Friday night the cold front will have passed to our east and north winds will have built in behind it. Expect migration conditions to deteriorate until the next cold front approaches on Saturday.

Saturday Night

Double whammy! So far it looks like the next low pressure system will make it to the region on Saturday, with southerly winds on tap for Saturday night... get ready for another flight!

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

We should see some new birds on the ground Thursday morning, especially within the western mid-Atlantic region. With southerly flow forecast throughout the day, keep your eye to the sky for diurnal raptors heading north.

Friday Morning

If everything pans out as predicted, we should see another arrival of new birds on Friday morning (and may notices some conspicuous absences of winter regulars from your local haunts). With the clearing skies on Friday and highs in the 60's, the birding conditions will be beautiful. This is a good time to familiarize yourself with the spring hotspots in your area, and who knows, you might just spot an early arrival fresh off the migration superhighway!

Saturday Morning

With no migration forecast for the previous night, things ought to be similar to Friday.

Sunday Morning

After another night of migration, we should see some new birds on Sunday morning. Judging by the southeasterly component to the winds, inland sites should be best (this is the typical spring trend as well). Southerly flow will persist on Sunday making it another good day for hawk-watching.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/21 - 3/23

2009-03-21T15:44:00.002-04:00

High pressure is giving way to a strong low over Canada, which will result in light south winds over the mid-Atlantic tonight. That should trigger some migration over the region, but will be limited since high pressure still dominates to our south (and so the south winds are very localized). North winds will return on Sunday and Monday, limiting any migration into the early part of the week. It's a beautiful time to be in the field, and many of the local breeders are pairing up and defending territories... it's beginning to feel a lot like spring!

On the topic of migration, the mid-Atlantic forecast is now also on Twitter. I'll be posting migration 'alerts' whenever the radar is showing a big flight, or it looks like conditions will favor a fallout, so join me on Twitter here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA.

Good Birding,

David

South winds on tap for the next couple of nights (3/17-3/19)

2009-03-17T08:57:00.003-04:00

As the latest low pressure system has moved off shore, high pressure will build in across the mid-Atlantic bringing southwest winds to the region today through Thursday morning. Moderate levels of migration are expected over the next two nights as some of our winter visitors clear out and make way for some of our migratory breeders. Be on the lookout for arriving Ospreys, as well as Eastern Phoebe, Pine Warbler, and the beautiful song of the Winter Wren.

Good Birding

David

Birds on the way (3/11)

2009-03-11T12:11:00.003-04:00

There's a cold front making its way across the mid-Atlantic today, and before it crosses the region it will bring southwesterly flow to the eastern seaboard. The radar indicated a moderate movement of birds across the Southeast last night, which would also suggest a push of birds headed our way this evening. Since it's still early, don't expect too much in terms of new diversity, but we should see a good influx of birds that had wintered just to our south.

By tomorrow (Thursday) the cold front will have passed and winds will turn northwesterly, precluding any major movements over the area.

Good Birding!

David

Spring Migration 2009

2009-03-07T22:35:00.002-05:00

Spring is in the air.

Just today while swinging in my hammock in Central New Jersey, a moth landed on my arm just long enough for me to say "huh... a moth... I haven't seen one of those in awhile". Just then I heard some Brown-headed Cowbirds vocalizing (a sound I both loathe, because of their parasitic nature, and love, because it signals the end of winter), and looked up to find three males posturing at the top of a sycamore tree... yup, spring is in the air.

Tonight, just before moving my clocks forward and turning in, I checked the local radar to see what was going on overhead. With the winds light and southwesterly, I wasn't surprised to see a moderate movement of birds over the mid-Atlantic. I'd suspect that the majority of these are robins, white-throated sparrows, juncos, etc., but just the fact that there are enough birds entering the atmosphere to show up on the radar gets me all excited.

So I guess this post will mark the beginning of the spring migration forecasts on Birdcapemay.org. Since it's still early, I'll be posting periodically only when conditions are looking favorable. As we get going into April, though, I'll begin to post the typical 5-day forecasts, and increase frequency when things really get interesting. Of course, you can always come here and check the live radar using the interactive map at the top of this page.

In the meantime, you can see how Neotropical migration is ramping up down south by following my friends Angel and Mariel as they post the nightly radar from South Florida on http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com.

Good Birding!

David La Puma

Chasing the Ghost Owl

2008-12-19T21:01:00.007-05:00

For me, the thought of winter owls usually comes just after the big flights of southbound songbirds have thinned out, the temperature dips into the 30's, and the large flocks of White-throated Sparrows and Dark-eyed Juncos find my feeders once again. Owls are mysterious enough without trying to understand their migration. Virtually silent on the wing, stone-cold still when perched, and active mostly during the hours when our human eyes are worthless; Owls are enigmatic.

For a Floridian transplanted into New Jersey, the one owl that has captivated me the most before ever laying eyes on it was definitely the Snowy Owl. Snowies are circumpolar in their distribution; breeding on the windswept open tundra where "high ground" is usually limited to rocky outcroppings only a few meters high. By late fall the owls begin their southbound migration out of the tundra and begin arriving on wintering grounds in November, continuing through January, and sometimes remaining into late spring (although most leave by early March). If the food supply is sufficient, many snowies will set up territories for the entire winter, making them a great bird to "chase" once one has been located.

Lucky for us, New Jersey and New York are within the annual wintering range of this majestic species. Snowy Owls winter in habitat structurally similar to their tundra breeding grounds. They are often found in open landscapes such as coastal dunes and agricultural areas, as well as human-altered landscapes such as airport fields. While many birds are found in expansive natural areas, like the Brigantine and Holgate units of the Forsythe NWR, they're also found quite regularly in more urbanized coastal areas such as the Shark River estuary in Belmar. In the latter cases it's not uncommon to find the owl perched atop a streetlight, or water tower. So, although they spend most of their time in low-stature habitat, don't forget to scan those distant perches up high as well.

The magnitude of Snowy Owl migration appears to be linked somewhat to the population of lemmings on the tundra, their primary source of food. It was once believed that this connection was quite strong, and that every four years lemming numbers crashed, and a large owl flight would follow. Recent studies have painted a more complex picture, where snowy owls show large variation in the migration strategies employed by various populations across their range. Some birds migrate long distances each year regardless of lemming numbers, while others appear nomadic in their strategy, migrating according to the lemming cycle, and breeding wherever they find large densities of their prey (as crossbills do, according to cone crops). Either way, we can expect a few snowy owls almost every year here in New Jersey, and with a little patience and a keen eye, you might just spot one on your own.

High quality snowy habitat can be found at many locations throughout New York and New Jersey, such as Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge in Brooklyn and Queens, NY. Open marsh, high concentrations of ducks (a primary food source for snowies wintering along the coasts) and proximity to the JFK airport fields (jackrabbits galore) make this area prime real estate for snowy owls. The coastal dunes of the nearby beaches have also held snowies in multiple winters. In New Jersey snowies have been reported in multiple years from Liberty State Park (one already this winter), Sandy Hook, Shark River Estuary, Island Beach State Park, Barnegate Inlet, the aforementioned areas within the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, and Stone Harbor point.

Fall Migration Wrapup

2008-11-02T19:30:00.004-05:00

While at any given moment some birds somewhere are migrating, the fall passage of long-distance migrant land birds over the mid-Atlantic has most certainly tapered off. Most of these birds have arrived or are arriving at their wintering grounds in the southern US, Central America, or the Caribbean and some even beyond into South America.

During the time between fall and spring migration I will be taking a reprieve from the regular 5-day forecast and instead will report periodically on broader topics regarding migration of all sorts. You can expect periodic posts from now until March, so make sure you check back regularly, or better yet, subscribe to the mid-Atlantic forecast through the RSS feed at the top of the page. I hope you found the migration forecasts helpful, informative, or at least interesting, and if you have any suggestions for this coming spring, please don't hesitate to send them to me at david@woodcreeper.com.

Have a great winter!

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/28 - 11/1

2008-10-28T20:02:00.003-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Well, this installment marks the end of the daily 2008 Mid-Atlantic Fall Migration Forecast. That's not to say it's the end of Fall migration, only that we're beyond the peak for diversity of nocturnal migrants for which this daily forecast is intended. I'll be returning several times a month to post essays on broader aspects of migration over the mid-Atlantic and I hope you'll come by and check them out. Make sure to subscribe to the RSS feed at the top of the page, to make sure you're the first to find out about any new posts. In the meantime, you can follow along with what's happening in Cape May, by checking the Recent Sightings area of this site. I hope you've found these forecasts useful, and look forward to another season of migration excitement in the coming Spring. Okay, here it goes...

Tuesday Night

The low pressure system that brought all the wind, rain, and in some cases snow, is intensifying as it heads north into Canada. As it does, strong northwest winds will build in across the region on Tuesday night, triggering heavy migration into the mid-Atlantic region.

Wednesday Night

Northwest winds will continue on Wednesday night and coupled with clear skies will set the stage for another night of heavy migration.

Thursday Night

More of the same on Thursday night, as northwest winds continue to blow from central Canada through the mid-Atlantic. This migration superhighway will bring another new crop of migrants to the region.

Halloween Night

High pressure will build on on Friday, cutting off the superhighway with west/southwest winds over New York and points north. Expect some migration over the mid-Atlantic, but most birds will be heading out of the region rather than arriving.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday - Friday Morning

Word has it that Higbee's beach was quiet today (Tuesday)... which, given the weather, might not be entirely surprising. Don't let that happen for the rest of the week though, because with the strong northwesterly winds forecast through Friday, coastal fall migrant traps will be the places to hit. Northwest winds also mean that late fall raptors will be flying. Eagles, both Golden and Bald, Northern Goshawks, and big flights of Red-tailed Hawks can all be expected this week. Head to the interior ridges for the best numbers of Goldens and Gos's, but if you're heading to the coast, make sure to keep an eye to the sky as both tend to show up there in smaller numbers.

Saturday Morning

With a lighter flight expected on Friday night, and more birds leaving than arriving, Saturday will probably be a "residual bird" day. With strong west winds forecast for Friday night, it might be interesting to hit the coast again for the slight chance of a morning pileup as birds return to shore after being blown out over water.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/24 - 10/28 (UPDATED)

2008-10-24T22:01:00.004-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Update: WHOA! Look at the real-time radar! We've got a major flight underway, being squeezed to the coast by a frontal boundary heading east. This is the perfect scenario for fallout conditions tomorrow morning, favoring migrant traps from central NJ east to the coast...

Migration Weather Forecast

Monday Night

Northerly winds early on Monday night are triggering heavy migration into the eastern mid-Atlantic region. A cold front making its way east is packing heavy precipitation which will effectively shut down migration during the night and early morning. This combination of factors will likely lead to fallout conditions on Tuesday morning.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Fallout conditions are likely from central NJ to the east coast. North to northwest winds are funneling birds into the southeast mid-Atlantic including Cape May, NJ and Bombay Hook, DE.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/20 - 10/24

2008-10-20T07:44:00.002-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Monday Night

Light west winds are expected on Monday night as the next cold front makes its way across the Ohio Valley. Expect a moderate push of birds over the mid-Atlantic, but southwest winds over New York and New England will limit the number of birds migrating into the region.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night the cold front to our west will interact with low pressure offshore to bring westerly winds across Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This will likely result in moderate levels of migration, with the possibility of some more westerly migrants being pushed eastwards.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night the cold front will have pushed across the region and high pressure will bring strong northwesterly flow over the mid-Atlantic. Expect heavy migration from the Great Lakes through the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night.

Thursday Night

As the front pushes out into the Atlantic and a strong low moves across the central US, expect winds to turn northeasterly over the mid-Atlantic, triggering more migration across the region.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

The winds, while westerly, will be light. Therefore birds will not necessarily be concentrated along the coast in any great numbers, although coastal locations will be favored on Tuesday morning. No precipitation is forecast for Tuesday (or for the rest of the week, for that matter) so tried-and-true migrant hotspots will be the best bet.

Wednesday Morning

On Wednesday night the winds will be much stronger out of the west, and will extend to the northwest into the Ohio Valley, which should indeed bring new birds to the region. Coastal locations will be favored for overall concentrations, but inland locations will be receiving new arrivals as well. Again, visiting a fall migrant trap will maximize your birding experience.

Thursday Morning

The migration superhighway will again be open for traffic on Wednesday night. With strong northwesterly winds on the forecast, expect coastal location such as Cape May (NJ) and Bombay Hook (DE) to be excellent on Thursday.

Friday Morning

It's only fair, after favoring the coast on Thursday that we have some northeast winds on Thursday night to bring birds inland for Friday. Again, no precipitation to concentrate birds, so head to your favorite inland hotspot for the best chance at seeing lots of birds. Successional fields and shrublands will be hopping with sparrows, while the ridges will be good locations for watching hawks as well as the possibility of detecting flyover winter finches.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/16 - 10/20

2008-10-16T06:20:00.003-04:00

Thu.AM	Thu.PM	FriAM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

A strong cold front is currently making its way across the Ohio Valley towards the eastern seaboard. Expect this front to clear our area on Thursday night, and bring with it strong northwest winds. This will trigger heavy migration into the mid-Atlantic region for Friday morning.

Friday Night

As high pressure sets up shop over the northeastern US, north winds and clear skies will again dominate the region causing another night of unimpeded migration.

Saturday Night

Low pressure off the Carolina coast, interacting with high pressure across the central US, will cause a strong northerly wind gradient over the coastal states. Coupled with more clear skies, this combination of optimal wind and weather will trigger more migration into and out of the mid-Atlantic region.

Sunday Night

As the coastal low moves offshore, and high pressure heads east, expect winds to die down over the mid-Atlantic. With the light winds still possessing a northerly component, expect a moderate flight of birds into and out of the region.

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Moderate migration on northwest winds on Wednesday night will be good for coastal hotspots on Thursday morning. There are plenty of birds present across the region at this time of year, so pick your favorite location and head there.

Friday Morning

With a strong flight on northwest winds anticipated for Thursday night, Cape May will be a good pick for Friday morning. Also, interior ridges will be fun for hawk watching as winds turn more northerly during the day.

Saturday Morning

Similar to Friday, given the strong northwest winds over western New York and New England, expect birds to be widespread across the region, with some heavier concentrations along the coast.

Sunday & Monday Morning

Sunday and Monday morning are looking a bit more favorable for inland locations, as clear skies and northeast winds will pave the way for more birds arriving to the region.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/11 - 10/15

2008-10-11T06:11:00.003-04:00

Sat.AM	Sat.PM	SunAM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Baby it's cold outside.

Have you noticed the foliage changing before your very eyes? The Virginia Creeper and Poison Ivy began a couple of weeks ago, but just in the last few days the Red Maples, Flowering Dogwoods, and even the Oaks are beginning to put on a show. If you've been out birding, you probably noticed another color shift as well. Neotropical migrants such as warblers, tanagers, and orioles, are rapidly being replaced by both kinglets, a diverse array of sparrows and the first hermit thrushes. Fall is the time of large blackbird flocks, big showings of Northern Flickers and American Robins, and the first appearances of wintering owls.

Saturday Night

High pressure is still the dominant factor for this weekend and early next week, meaning that clear skies and northerly winds will clear the path for fall migrants. Expect northeasterly winds on Saturday night to trigger heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Sunday Night

Winds will go slack on Sunday night, with surface winds blowing light southwesterly. This shouldn't hinder migrants, though, as the winds aloft over the Northeastern US will be blowing out of the northwest. This lack of tailwind should insure that fewer birds depart the region, while a new wave of birds enters from the north.

Monday Night

Northwest winds should build in by Monday night, triggering another night of heavy migration into the region.

Tuesday Night

Winds will turn west/southwest on Thursday night as the next cold front approaches from the west. No migration is expected.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

Heavy migration on Friday night will lead to a good influx of new birds into the mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Inland sites will be favored due to the strong east/northeast winds on Saturday morning.

Sunday Morning

Another night of northeasterly winds will benefit inland sites on Sunday morning. No weather is expected to concentrate birds, so inland migrant traps will be the best bet. Also consider inland hawkwatches as the conditions will be favorable for a decent flight, and you might just catch a glimpse of a Golden Eagle or Northern Goshawk overhead.

Monday Morning

With light southwest winds on the surface, and a heavy influx of birds from the northeastern US, all migrant traps throughout the region should see new birds on Monday.

Tuesday Morning

Strong northwest winds extending way up into northwestern NY will favor coastal hotspots throughout the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday morning, bringing a nice new crop of birds into the region.Cape May should he hopping on Tuesday.

Wednesday Morning

With migration conditions deteriorating on Tuesday night, don't expect any new arrivals on Wednesday morning. That said, there are plenty of birds around, so check your local birding report to see what's being seen and where.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/6 - 10/10

2008-10-06T20:40:00.002-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Well, if the weather didn't clue you in, the White-throated Sparrows should have... October is in full swing over the mid-Atlantic.

Monday Night

High pressure will dominate the region, leading to clear skies and northwest winds. Expect heavy and widespread migration across the mid-Atlantic.

Tuesday Night

Northwest winds will strengthen on Tuesday night, and strong northwesterly winds over Canada will help usher in more waves of typical winter species such as White-throated Sparrows.

Wednesday Night

As high pressure moves southeast into the Carolinas, expect winds to turn southwesterly and shut down migration.

Thursday Night

Winds will turn west/southwest on Thursday night as high pressure makes its way east into the Atlantic. No migration is expected.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

A big flight on northwest winds will mean good birding conditions at fall hotspots across the mid-Atlantic. Plenty of birds are already around, so this influx of new individuals will mean some places are really hopping. Cape May is a "no-brainer" for Tuesday, but Sandy Hook as well as inland locations could be great as well.

Wednesday Morning

With stronger northwest winds extending up into eastern Canada, the migration superhighway will bring another large movement of birds into the mid-Atlantic. Coastal locations will be favored, but as with yesterday, inland sites will also be good. Raptors should be up in good numbers on Wednesday, and the chance of encountering a Golden Eagle or Northern Goshawk is increasing daily.

Thursday & Friday Morning

Because no migration is expected on Wednesday and Thursday nights, birding conditions on Thursday and Friday should be similar to Wednesday. Birds will be moving into optimal foraging habitat, but otherwise good concentrations should still be found around coastal sites. Skip the hawkwatch because of the unfavorable winds and spend your time scoping shorebirds or beating the bushes to see the cornucopia of sparrows recently showing up across the region.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 10/2 - 10/6

2008-10-02T23:51:00.003-04:00

Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Thurssdy Night

Still under the influence of high pressure and westerly winds, birds will take to the sky in large numbers for one more night before the weekend.

Friday Night

Low pressure to the northeast and west will draw winds from the south on Friday night, therefore shutting down migration.

Saturday Night

As high pressure replaces low pressure across the region, winds will gradually turn slack on Saturday night, opening the possibility of some migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Sunday Night

By Sunday night high pressure should strengthen enough to generate northwest winds and trigger heavy migration in and out of the region.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

West winds will tend to drive birds to the coast on Friday morning. With no weather in store, migrants will be dispersed across the landscape and best sought at tried and true migrant traps such as Cape May (NJ).

Saturday Morning

With no major changes expected on Saturday morning, location that proved productive on Friday would be a good bet for Saturday.

Sunday Morning

While a few birds are expected to move on Saturday night, the movement is not expected to be large and therefore changes on the ground may not be immediately evident. As with Friday, tried and true migrant traps along the coast will a good bet..

Monday Morning

Northwest winds return to the region, and heavy migration is expected to bring new arrivals to migrant hotspots across the state. Hawk watching should also be good on Monday as raptors would have had a couple of days off due to suboptimal conditions.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/28 - 10/2 (UPDATED)

2008-09-28T06:08:00.003-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Updated at 11:23pm on 9/29... winds have continued out of the northwest and have triggered the largest migration in a few weeks... Cape May should see an excellent flight on Tuesday morning if this keeps up through then...

Migration Weather Forecast

After a couple of nights without nocturnal migration, north winds will return to the region in several waves over the next week. Between tropical cyclones and a series of cold fronts, we should see a nice influx of migrants.

Sunday Night

A weak cold front interacting with tropical cyclone Kyle will set up light northwesterly flow across the region tonight, triggering heavy migration into the mid-Atlantic.

Monday Night

As high pressure builds in behind the most recent front, expect winds to strengthen out of the northwest and send more birds our way.

Tuesday Night

The second cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, causing southerly flow to intensify across the mid-Atlantic, and effectively shutting down nocturnal migration for Tuesday night...

Wednesday Night

...but of course, with every dark cloud (or cloudy cold front) there's always a silver lining (or high pressure, building in behind it) which tends to manifest itself in northwesterly winds. Expect northwest winds to kick in during the day on Wednesday, leading to another big push of birds into the region on Wednesday night and possibly setting up Cape May for a great day on Thursday.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Northwest winds! Now that's something we've been lacking this fall here in the mid-Atlantic. Expect birds to be pushed eastward on Sunday night, making attractive the fall hotspots along the east coast for Monday morning. Cape May should be hopping, and raptors should be flying across the region.

Tuesday Morning

Since skies will be clear and winds will be northwesterly on Monday night, expect birds to be dispersed across the landscape on Tuesday morning, although concentrations will occur at migrant traps along the coast, such as Sandy Hook (NJ), Cape May (NJ) and Bombay Hook (DE). Another consideration might be your local hawkwatch, as the conditions will be good for a raptor flight.

Wednesday Morning

With no migration expected on Tuesday night, the birding conditions should remain unchanged for Wednesday. I did leave the yellow flag up for Wednesday because If the cold front passes early enough on Wednesday morning, we could see a raptor flight later in the day.

Thursday Morning

Cooler temps and northwesterly winds should have brought some new birds into the region. Again, since no precipitation is expected to concentrate birds, the tried-and-true fall hotspots along the east coast will be your best bet.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/23 - 9/27 (UPDATED)

2008-09-23T20:58:00.004-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

UPDATED at 8:40PM on 9/23... unfortunately, the foul weather has moved into the region quicker than anticipated, and little to no migration is taking place into the region... the fallout prediction has therefore been removed from the forecast...

Migration Weather Forecast

High pressure early in the week will yield to a strong low approaching from the Carolina coast. This will bring strong east and northeast winds to the region before turning southeast and bringing heavy rain to the mid-Atlantic.

Tuesday Night

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic has resulted in clear skies and light easterly winds for Tuesday night. Expect heavy migration over the entire region tonight.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night high pressure will be interacting with the approaching low, setting up moderate easterly winds over the mid-Atlantic. Couple this with nice clear skies, and you can expect heavy migration across the entire region.

Thursday Night

As the low pressure over the Carolina coast strengthens and moves north, strong east winds will build over the mid-Atlantic and heavy rain will move north into the region. Since winds are strong and easterly over the northeast, migration into the region will be light, at best.

Friday Night

By Friday night the winds will have turned southeasterly over the mid-Atlantic, shutting down migration for the weekend.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday and Thursday Morning

It's the "Migration Superhighway" for Tuesday and Wednesday nights, which means birds will be well distributed across the landscape. Inland sites will be favored based on the wind direction, and the south ends of ridges will be good for both migrant songbirds and diurnal raptors. The north shore of the Delaware Bay will also be a good area to find concentrations of migrants.

Friday Morning

Unfortunately it's not looking great for Friday morning, and coupled with the heavy rain, will probably be a nice time to catch up on that book you've been meaning to read.

Saturday Morning

One word: Wet. Okay, three words: No new migrants. But that shouldn't keep you from birding, in fact, you might want to hit the coast, since the strong southeasterly winds could bring something interesting close to shore. When the weather does clear, the birds that arrived last night will still be around, so get out there and bird hard!

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/19 - 9/23

2008-09-19T19:55:00.003-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

The birds are leaving? Say it isn't so!

Because of high pressure and one weak cold front, this weekend is looking like a free pass out of the mid-Atlantic, with no reprieve until Sunday night at the earliest.

Friday Night

South winds over the northeastern US, coupled with northeast winds over the mid-Atlantic will result in many migration-ready birds heading out of the region with little-to-no replacement.

Saturday Night

As a cold front pushes down from the northwest, winds over the mid-Atlantic will turn southerly and reduce the chance for migration on Saturday night. It's possible that the winds will go slack, in which case we could see a smaller exodus out of the area, but the forecast isn't looking good for any new arrivals.

Sunday Night

The weak cold front will pass during the day on Sunday, and high pressure will build in behind it bringing northerly flow over the region once again. So far the front doesn't appear to be packing much precipitation, and winds are expected to be northeasterly, so expect migrants to be well dispersed across the landscape.

Monday Night

Stronger northeast winds on Monday night should trigger another large migration event over the northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

Birding Forecast

Saturday & Sunday Morning

Remember the Bob Marley song "Exodus"? Well, I can't seem to get it out of my head, so that must mean something, right? Birds will be leaving the mid-Atlantic for more southerly locales, and little to no replacement is expected due to southerly winds to our north. This will result in a net decrease in bird density across the region until after Sunday night, once the cold front has passed.

Monday & Tuesday Morning

With northeast winds over the region for Sunday and Monday nights, expect a new push of birds into the region from the northeast. With no precipitation on tap, also expect these birds to be dispersed across the landscape. Therefore tried and true migrant hotspots will be the best bets for Monday and Tuesday mornings, as will inland hawkwatches which should be featuring a nice Broad-winged Hawk flight after a few days of poor conditions.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/15 - 9/19

2008-09-15T23:46:00.003-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Mid-September is officially upon us, and whether the autumnal equinox is a week away or not, fall migration is ramping into high gear. The last couple of weeks have seen several cold fronts cross the region, and several waves of migrants move through the mid-Atlantic, but the real fun is only just beginning. While migration conditions are near-perfect, this does come with a trade-off. Since the atmosphere will remain extremely clear this week, birds will be migrating unimpeded into the weekend. For those of you going birding this will mean having to choose your locations wisely, based on their reliability during fall migration. No major fallouts are expected, although the entire region should see a marked increase in bird abundance over the next couple of days.

Monday Night

Definitely the biggest night of migration so far this fall, as winds across the entire eastern half of the United States are favorable. Expect heavy migration across the mid-Atlantic with a huge influx of new birds into the region, as well as a major exodus of migration-ready birds heading south.

Tuesday Night

High pressure over the Great Lakes region will turn the local winds light northeasterly, which should trigger a second night of heavy migration over the region.

Wednesday Night

Winds slacken a bit on Wednesday night, but continue to come from the northeast over most of the mid-Atlantic, bringing with them more birds.

Thursday Night

As dominant high pressure begins to interact with a cold front over central Canada, the northwest wind gradient across the mid-Atlantic will intensify, triggering another night of heavy migration.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Cape May. Hands down. With northwest winds on tap, and the magnitude of migration so huge, these are the conditions that make Cape May one of the premier birding locations during Fall migration. Couple that with the potential for an excellent raptor flight tomorrow, and you can't go wrong.

Wednesday Morning

You're better off heading inland on Wednesday, as northeast winds will surely push migrants in that direction. Head for Chimney Rock (NJ) for some raptor viewing and a good chance at diverse feeding flocks of warblers. Or, you can head to Hawk Mountain (PA) where there's sure to be a good flight of Broad-winged Hawks among other birds.

Thursday Morning

For Thursday the forecast shows little in the way of a wind effect, which probably means that birds will be heading due south with little in terms of a tail-wind. Expect migrants to be dispersed across the landscape on Thursday, with the tried-and-true migration hot spots providing the best "bang for your buck". Note that after three nights of heavy migration, even the parking lot at Wawa can have some good birds, so don't neglect your local patch on Thursday morning.

Friday Morning

Another night of heavy migration will benefit Cape May and other coastal areas. While not as intense as Tuesday morning, the birding in Cape May could be great on Friday, if the westerly component to wind continues. Check the local conditions for Sandy Hook (NJ) and Cape May to determine whether the winds turned easterly, in which case, head inland. Otherwise enjoy the migration spectacle along the coast.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/15 (UPDATED)

2008-09-11T23:21:00.006-04:00

Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Heavy migration expected into the mid-Atlantic tonight... will update forecast by tomorrow morning, but in the meantime, check the live radar here to see how things are going...

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/7 - 9/11 (UPDATED)

2008-09-09T23:30:00.000-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Updated at 11:30pm on Tuesday 9/9/08...moderate migration was unexpected given the southwesterly wind forecast. Since winds have remained westerly, birds appear to be taking advantage of the conditions... see below for changes to the forecast in italics...

Migration Weather Forecast

Tropical storm Hanna made her way up the eastern seaboard over the last couple of days, and now spins off the coast of Maine on its way out to sea. The storm brought strong southerly winds to the region late last week which resulted in some nice sightings across the mid-Atlantic coast including Sooty Shearwaters off of Cape May, NJ, and Red-necked Phalaropes at Sandy Hook, NJ. On Saturday night, as Hanna vacated the mid-Atlantic, the winds turned northwesterly and triggered widespread nocturnal migration across the region, which will likely continue through the beginning of this week.

Another big happening this week was the launching of our new live radar map at the top of the page. You can use this feature to check the current radar against any forecast conditions, and see how migration is playing out across the mid-Atlantic region. Thanks to Michael Mills at the Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (Rutgers University) for his magic-like programming skills which built the map, and to Laura Guerard from CMBO for being so supportive of new ideas, and so creative at implementing them. While many of us contribute to the site, it would never be successful without Laura's hard work.

Sunday Night

Winds will be westerly, with just enough northwest component to set off another big push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night. Whereas on Saturday night the majority of migration was south of NJ, Sunday night will be good for migration across the entire region.

Monday Night

Winds will continue to blow out of the west on Monday night, but should turn southwesterly as the night progresses, in response to the approaching cold front. It's possible we could see some widespread migration early in the evening, but expect it to thin out as the wind shifts.

Tuesday Night

Southwest winds were expected to dominate on Tuesday night, but instead winds are westerly and birds are moving southeast over the region.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will pass over the region during the day on Wednesday and strong northwest winds will build in for Wednesday night. This cold front should have some heavy precipitation associated with it, so we'll need to keep an eye on it for possible fallout conditions. Expect heavy migration across the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night, but as far as forecasting the fallout potential I'll have to update the forecast as we approach the mid-week.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Heavy migration on northwest winds and clear skies will mean lots of birds being dispersed across the region on Monday morning. Head for the coast if you can, or stick with locations known for being good birding locations in the Fall. Cape May will be a great pick in New Jersey, as will Bombay Hook in Delaware.

Tuesday Morning

With west winds forecast for Monday night expect coastal locations to shine again on Tuesday. Since winds will eventually turn southwesterly on Monday night, migration should not be as heavy and the number of new birds entering the mid-Atlantic will be fewer.

Wednesday Morning

Since a moderate flight is going on at the time of this updated forecast, expect some new birds especially at coastal locations on Wednesday morning. The composition will likely be strong fliers like blackbirds and thrushes, rather than warblers, but the westerly component to the wind should push most of them eastward.

Thursday Morning

Based on the current forecast we could see localized fallout conditions on Thursday morning. The conditions we're expecting are strong northwesterly winds behind the frontal boundary, which should be stretched across the eastern seaboard on Wednesday night. As birds migrate towards the frontal boundary they may encounter heavy precipitation and unstable headwinds, therefore pinpointing the location of this front will be crucial to predicting the location of fallout conditions. I'll update the forecast on Wednesday in order to better predict the birding conditions for Thursday.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 9/3 - 9/7

2008-09-03T21:13:00.003-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Heavy migration was evident over the mid-Atlantic on Saturday night, as TS Hanna cleared out faster than originally anticipated at last posting... an updated forecast will be posted later on Sunday evening...

Migration Weather Forecast

After four nights of heavy migration, things are finally winding down for awhile. Look on the bright side: now you can spend the weekend finding all the birds that showed up this week!

Wednesday Night

Although the surface winds will be light and southerly, the winds at 3000 feet are forecast to be light and northerly on Wednesday night. Expect light to moderate levels of migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Thursday - Saturday Nights

Two weather systems will eventually bring southerly flow to the area by the end of the week. First, a low pressure cell over Nova Scotia will move west and north and bring light south winds on Thursday night. The second low pressure system, the remnants of Hurricane Gustav, will make its way north and east across the country and make its presence felt in the mid-Atlantic on Friday. Winds on the east side of this low will be strong and southerly on Friday and Saturday nights, which will shut down nocturnal migration throughout the region. Late in the weekend the mid-Atlantic will experience some of the effects of hurricane Hanna. Right now strong southerly winds are forecast over the ocean on Saturday and Sunday, which could result in some interesting pelagic species showing up along the coastal mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Because of the heavy influx of migrants over the last four nights, and because of the light movement of new birds into the region on Wednesday night, the birding conditions across the region will be good on Thursday. Birds will be dispersed across the region on Thursday so choose a location known for attracting birds during fall migration. Don't expect much in terms of raptor migration since the winds will be turning southerly by morning.

Friday - Sunday Morning

Southerly flow over the region will shut down migration through the weekend. Birding conditions are very good right now, due to the huge influx of new birds over the last week, so get out there and bird before the weather gets ugly. On that note, strong southerly winds on Saturday and Sunday may bring tropical pelagic species close to mid-Atlantic shores, so if you can brave the conditions, head to the shore this weekend.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 8/30 - 9/3

2008-08-30T19:09:00.005-04:00

Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

High pressure has begun to build in across the mid-Atlantic, following the most recent cold front which moved offshore during the day today. The current overcast sky notwithstanding, we are getting ready for a week's worth of starry nights and prime wind conditions across the region. Given we're nearing the end of August, it's worth taking a moment to note some of the great birds currently being reported. Shorebirds have stolen the show of late, with Baird's and buff-breasted sandpipers, marbled godwits, American golden plovers, and red-necked and Wilson's phalaropes showing up at multiple locations across PA, NJ, DE and NY. Today a Red-necked Stint, a very rare vagrant to to the US from Eurasia, was discovered at 2-Mile Landing, in Cape May, NJ. You can find out more about this very special bird by following this link to the birdcapemay.org sightings page.
The combination of great birds, heavy migration, and beautiful weather will surely make this Labor Day weekend a very tempting excuse for a birding excursion!

Saturday Night

The week of migration begins with light and variable winds on Saturday night. While the air might still feel sopping wet, the upper level winds have already turned northerly and birds will indeed take to the sky tonight. Expect heavy migration across the northeast and mid-Atlantic tonight as the winds pick up out of the north and the skies clear.

Sunday Night

Expect more migration on Sunday night, as northwest winds build in due to the strengthening high pressure. Given the optimal conditions, the entire region will likely see some turnover of birds as some leave while others arrive.

Monday Night

As of right now, the forecast is calling for a strengthening low pressure system over Nova Scotia, which will interact with the high positioned over the region, causing a strengthening of northerly winds over the mid-Atlantic. The amount of east in the wind will dictate the general direction of migration, but regardless of the minor trajectory, expect more migration for the region.

Tuesday Night

As high pressure moves east, and the low off of Nova Scotia strengthens and moves west, the wind gradient between the two will kick up strong northwesterlies over the region. Expect another night of heavy migration for the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night.

Birding Forecast

Sunday & Monday Morning

Now that I've gotten you all excited, I have to state the one big caveat of all of this migration activity. As of right now, the forecast is for a "migration superhighway" right through the region, without any weather-related barriers to cause localized concentrations. North winds on Saturday and Sunday night will mean dispersed migrants across the region on Sunday and Monday morning. Moderate levels of migrants will be apparent at fall migration hotspots across the region on both days, with the possibility of some build-up on Monday as new birds arrive and less birds are prepared to leave.

Tuesday Morning

With the possibility of northeast winds we could see migrants piling into inland migrant traps such as along the Watchung Mountains (NJ), along the Delaware River (PA/NJ), and along the northern Delaware Bay shore (NJ).

Wednesday Morning

For those of you along the east coast, who felt left out by the northeast winds on Monday night, your day should be Wednesday morning when strong northwesterlies push migrants towards the coast. Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park and Cape May should all be good bets for New Jersey, while Bombay Hook in Delaware will be a good pick for those near the Delmarva peninsula.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 8/26 - 8/30

2008-08-26T17:18:00.002-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

High pressure dominating the region is maintaining an east/northeasterly flow, allowing for a few nights of heavy to moderate migration. A cold front will be approaching from the west by the end of the week which will initially result in a southwesterly flow. This change in winds will reduce the chance of migration by the weekend, but the passing cold front will mean strong northwesterly flow soon thereafter. I'll post an updated forecast on Saturday to take you through the long weekend, but as of right now it's looking like a well-timed day off of work!

Tuesday Night

High pressure dominating the region will bring east winds on Tuesday night, while upper level winds will remain out of the northeast. This, coupled with clear evening skies, will trigger moderate to heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Wednesday & Thursday Nights

For Wednesday and Thursday nights expect winds at all elevations to turn easterly, and the probability of heavy migration to decrease. Still, conditions will remain favorable for moderate levels of migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

By Friday night winds should turn southerly, as high pressure has dissipated and a cold front approaches from the west. We may get some precipitation from the remnants of tropical storm Fay, but the timing will not coincide with nocturnal migration. Looking ahead, expect a cold front to move through on Saturday, setting us up for some heavy migration into the weekend and early next week.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

With easterly flow across the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night, and the chance for heavy migration, expect a good push of new birds into the region with birds dispersed widely across the landscape. As for birding locations, head inland as birds will have been pushed westward. Coastal locations could appear barren in comparison, so choose wisely!

Thursday & Friday Morning

More east winds and moderate levels of migration should keep birds moving through the mid-Atlantic region. Again, these conditions favor inland locations, and the absence of any major weather to concentrate birds means that the best birding locations will be those tried and true fall migration hotspots.

Saturday Morning

South winds are on deck for Friday night, and no migration is expected. Birds will still be around from the recent week of migration, and inland sites will be your best bet.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

UPDATE: Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 8/22 - 8/26

2008-08-22T12:00:00.001-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

UPDATE 8.25.08: HEAVY MIGRATION over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic tonight as the surface winds are light and northerly, and the winds aloft are strong and out of the west...see the BIRDING FORECAST below for further details...

"Ground control to major Tom:

Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong.

Can you hear me major Tom? Can you...."

Yeah, well it appears we had a bad circuit, or something, which is why the migration forecast was late this week. I'm sorry for any inconvenience it might have caused... I know the powers that be are working hard to make sure it doesn't happen again. In the meantime we had a good push of early fall migrants on Tuesday night and a smaller push on Wednesday night resulting in a few new migrants being spotted across the region. On the warbler front, multiple Mourning warblers have been spotted throughout New Jersey while several Golden-winged and Cerulean warblers were reported from Cape May. Shorebirds continue to build up at places such as Jamaica Bay (NY), the Brigantine area of Forsythe NWR (NJ) and Bombay Hook (DE), and some of the first movements of Broad-winged Hawks have been reported from the ridges in northwestern New Jersey.

While the next few days don't look particularly good for migration, the next cold front is on the way after the weekend and we can expect a big push into the region upon its arrival.

Friday - Sunday Night

High pressure parked offshore will dominate the region through the weekend, increasing the southerly flow across the mid-Atlantic. Expect little to no migration during this period.

Monday Night

The current forecast has a cold front moving in from Canada on Monday and hopefully clearing at least part of the mid-Atlantic by Monday night. Winds behind the cold front will be northwesterly, and given the three days without migration, will surely trigger heavy migration over the region. Little to no precipitation is expected with this front so the best birding locations will be dictated by the wind direction early Tuesday morning.

Birding Forecast

Saturday - Monday Morning

Thank goodness that poor migration conditions don't mean bad birding! There are plenty of birds around right now (see my opening paragraph for some specific locations) and this is a great time to get out and see some of the earlier migrants before they leave the region for good. Shore-birding should be excellent during this time but save your trips to your favorite hawk watch for when the northerly winds build back in.

Tuesday Morning

Updated:Tuesday morning is looking great so far, with heavy migration evident on all radars across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic US. With northerly winds at the surface and westerly winds aloft, birds will probably be negotiating the two to maximize the best tailwind. These conditions will likely lead to a good number of birds being pushed to the coast overnight, which translates to good birding conditions on Tuesday morning, as birds orient back to shore during first light. Good birding locations for tomorrow will be coastal, including Sandy Hook (NJ), Island Beach State Park (NJ) and Cape May (NJ).

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 8/19 - 8/23

2008-08-20T19:15:00.002-04:00

Tues.PM	WedAM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Update 8/21/08 @ 10:16pm...light migration over the region triggered by northwesterly winds at high altitude on Thursday night...a full weekend forecast will be issued at noon tomorrow

Migration Weather Forecast

"And the winds they go a-round-and-round, round-and-round, round-and-round..."

If you've been watching the weather, you know that Florida is experiencing a real spinner right now, with Tropical Storm Fay blowing down trees and dumping copious amounts of rain. What you might not have noticed, though, is that we've had our own little wind shift here over the mid-Atlantic as the latest cold front has pushed offshore and high pressure is building in with winds from the northwest. Tonight you can expect the next push of southbound migrants to reach the region and birding conditions to improve over the next couple of days.

Tuesday Night

The current wind analysis for the mid-Atlantic shows westerlies still persisting over MD, DE and southern NJ, while northwesterlies are already present from central NJ and PA, northward. Expect the northwest winds to build in across the entire region by this evening, and possibly even turn northerly by tomorrow morning. Clear skies and a tailwind; that's a recipe for widespread migration.

Wednesday Night

As high pressure moves east, winds will turn more northerly, and eventually make a full clockwise swing around to the south, where they'll probably be Wednesday night. Don't fret, though, because the surface winds are forecast to be light, while the winds aloft (~1000-3000 feet) are forecast to be out of the northeast, keeping open the possibility for some migration.

Thursday Night

By Thursday night the high pressure cell should be right over NJ, and winds will likely be slack. Given how early it still is, I'm going to be a little conservative and figure that most of the birds that were migration-ready took off on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and that by Thursday, most will be sticking around... but we'll have to see how the conditions pan out between now and then, and possibly revise the forecast accordingly.

Friday Night

With high pressure offshore, winds should turn easterly and possibly southeasterly on Friday night. I'm not expecting anything to move on Friday night given these conditions. Again, this will require some revisiting should the high pressure move faster or slower, affecting wind direction which could lead to more or less migration activity.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

The best bet for the week so far. Steady northerlies will push birds down from the northeastern US into the mid-Atlantic, making fall migration hotspots the place to be on Wednesday. If the winds stick to the northwesterly projection, we could see very good numbers at places such as Cape May and Sandy Hook, NJ. Again, without any weather barriers to cause localized fallouts, the best bets will be those areas known to produce good birding conditions during the fall.

Thursday Morning

Expect a smaller push of birds arriving on northeast winds Thursday morning, this time favoring the inland locations such as Chimney Rock (NJ) and the Delaware River watershed (NJ and PA).

Friday Morning

While still quite tentative, the current forecast suggests little or no migration on Thursday night, therefore conditions on Friday should be similar to Thursday morning.

Saturday Morning

Saturday morning is looking a whole lot like Friday morning... which is looking a whole lot like Thursday morning... the big difference being that if you're not independently wealthy, retired, or on summer vacation, you probably had to wait until today to go birding. For those of you (us) who fit that shoe, here's to ya!

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 8/19 - 8/23

2008-08-15T18:47:00.005-04:00

Tues.PM	WedAM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"And the winds they go a-round-and-round, round-and-round, round-and-round..."

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Night

Thursday Night

Friday Night

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Thursday Morning

Expect a smaller push of birds arriving on northeast winds Thursday morning, this time favoring the inland locations such as Chimney Rock (NJ) and the Delaware River watershed (NJ and PA).

Friday Morning

While still quite tentative, the current forecast suggests little or no migration on Thursday night, therefore conditions on Friday should be similar to Thursday morning.

Saturday Morning

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Spring Migration Wrapup

2008-06-02T19:18:00.002-04:00

While at any given moment some birds somewhere are migrating, the annual (mostly nocturnal) spring passage of land-birds over the mid-Atlantic has most certainly tapered off. Most of these birds are either on breeding territories right now, or are still making their way further north into the boreal forests and beyond, where they will soon be finding mates and doing their part to ensure another generation of their species.

During the time between spring and fall migration I will be taking a reprieve from the regular 5-day forecast and instead will report periodically on broader topics regarding migration of all sorts. You can expect one article per month during June, July, and August, but possibly more if something interesting crosses my desk and I just can't wait to share it. I hope you found the migration forecasts helpful, informative, or at least interesting, and if you have any suggestions for this coming fall, please don't hesitate to send them to me at david@woodcreeper.com.

Have a great summer!

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 29 to June 2 (UPDATED)

2008-05-29T09:00:00.006-04:00

Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Birds are on the move as of 10:30pm on Saturday night, but only light to moderate levels... thunderstorms are lacking as well, but northwest winds early tomorrow morning will shut down migration after midnight...

UPDATED 5/31/08 @ 11:33PM

New forecast models have the cold front moving offshore by Saturday night, restricting migration to Friday and Saturday nights, and making for nice birding weather on both Sunday and Monday. I've updated the forecast for Sunday night and Monday morning accordingly. I'm still leaving in the possibility for fallout conditions on Sunday morning, but if thunderstorms build in before sunset, this could seriously truncate any large-scale migration on Saturday night. I'll post an update here on Saturday night (10:00pm) when it becomes clearer whether birds took to the skies.

Migration Weather Forecast

The next few days are shaping up for a late-May combo of heavy migration and severe thunderstorms, which could lead to fallout conditions for parts of the mid-Atlantic by the end of the weekend.

Thursday Night

Clear skies and light westerly winds will allow some birds to move through the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. West winds should favor coastal locations for Friday morning.

Friday Night

As the next cold front pushes eastward on Friday, winds will turn from west to south and open the migration floodgates once more. Clear skies on Friday night should also allow for unimpeded migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the cold front and associated low pressure system will move over the mid-Atlantic, setting up southwesterly wind gradient and triggering heavy thunderstorm activity across the region. If we're lucky, migration will begin well before thunderstorm activity, increasing our chance for fallout conditions on Sunday morning.

Sunday Night

New forcast information indicates that the front will be offshore by Sunday night, and northwest winds will dominate the region. This should effectively shut down migration over the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Due to the west winds on Thursday night, coastal migrant hotspots should be the best bets for Friday morning. Migration is expected to be moderate, at best, so changes in density or diversity may be difficult to detect anywhere else.

Saturday Morning

Heavy migration on clear skies Friday night will lead to migrants being highly dispersed across the landscape on Saturday morning. Therefore, spring migrant traps across the region will be the best bet for Saturday.

Sunday Morning

Sunday morning is the day to watch! With heavy migration expected, and severe thunderstorms predicted, the combination could spell excellent birding on Sunday. The telltale sign will be a lack of heavy precipitation early in the evening when birds start migrating, and then heavy precipitation anytime after midnight but before sunrise. Check back here on Saturday night for an updated migration alert at the top of this page.

Monday Morning

With the cold front off the east coast and northwest winds blowing on Sunday night, no new birds are expected on Monday morning. Clear skies and nice weather, though, will make for comfortable birding conditions.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 25 - 28

2008-05-25T17:23:00.002-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

High pressure over the region will move out to sea tonight, allowing the return of southerly flow for Sunday and Monday nights in advance of the next cold front. On Tuesday afternoon a strong cold front will move across the region and northwest winds will build in behind it, reducing the probability of migration through the rest of the week.

Sunday Night

Light south winds are forecast for Sunday night. Couple this with a clear starry sky, and you can begin to imagine the sound of thrushes calling overhead. Expect a good push of migrants into and over the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night.

Monday Night

South winds will persist through Monday night, possibly taking a more southwesterly trajectory depending on the orientation of the approaching cold front. Clouds will build in on Monday night, but the chance of precipitation is quite low. Expect another night of heavy migration on Monday.

Tuesday Night

The cold front will pass to our east on Tuesday afternoon, and high pressure will build in behind it with 10-15mph northwest winds. Expect winds to shut down migration for Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

So far the forecast is calling for a continuation of moderate northerly winds, so I'm not expecting much in terms of migration on Wednesday night. That said, we've recently seen several nights where winds were light northwesterly, and birds took advantage of the relatively stable atmosphere despite the headwind. We'll have to keep an eye on conditions to see if this happens again on Wednesday.

Birding Forecast

Memorial Day

Birding conditions should be good on Monday, with a new influx of birds making their way into the region. Without any weather to concentrate migrants, expect spring migrant hotspots to possess the best birding conditions.

Tuesday Morning

After another night of migration, birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be very good. The forecast is calling for thunderstorms, but this could play into your favor if you target locations of heavy rain in the early-morning. While not "fallout" material, heavy rain will still tend to concentrate birds... so get an umbrella and check the radar before heading out.

Wednesday Morning

Beautiful clear skies and mild temperatures will grace the region on Wednesday morning. While no new birds are expected, after two nights of good migration and no birds leaving, Wednesday morning is looking like a fine day to bird!

Thursday Morning

It's possible that we could see a small movement of birds on Wednesday night, but I'm reluctant to say so right now. Either way, the birding conditions should remain quite nice for the same reasons as Wednesday morning.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 21 - 25 (UPDATED)

2008-05-21T06:34:00.006-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Saturday 5/24/08:Contrary to expectations, birds took to the sky on Friday night and the mid-Atlantic received a new installment of seasonal migrants...

Update 5/23/08 @ 5:30AM

Westerly winds over Virginia on Thursday night allowed for heavy migration as far as the Delmarva Peninsula, but no further. Birders along the western shore of the Delmarva should be on the lookout for new arrivals on Friday morning.

Migration Weather Forecast

Low pressure moving out to sea will give way to high pressure building in over the Hudson Bay, increasing northerly flow over the region and effectively shutting down migration for a few days.

Wednesday Night

Wednesday night will be the best chance for migration this week, as winds at all levels will be out of the west, and not yet northwesterly. Given the light-to-moderate levels of migration seen lately, I'm going to speculate that migration will remain as such for Wednesday night.

Thursday - Saturday Night

By Thursday night winds should turn west/northwest both at the surface, and at higher altitudes, effectively shutting down migration over the mid-Atlantic. As high pressure tracks to the east during the latter part of the week, winds will turn northwesterly (Friday night) and northerly (Saturday night). Right now it looks like a warm and beautiful weekend... but it's not looking likely that migration will be a big part of it (but planting tomatoes will!... I digress).

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

With moderate levels of migrants taking flight on Wednesday night, expect some new birds to arrive at spring migration hotspots on Thursday morning. Westerly flow should push birds to the coast, favoring locations such as Sandy Hook and Island Beach State Park.

Friday - Sunday Morning

With little to no new migration expected, birding conditions be similar to Thursday morning, with some localized movement of birds into optimal foraging habitat. Nevertheless, warming temperatures and clearing skies will make for some beautiful weekend birding. This is a great time of the year to venture into the many forested areas around the mid-Atlantic, where bird diversity is peaking between the resident species, breeding migrants, and those just "passing through".

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 17 - 21

2008-05-17T13:15:00.003-04:00

Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Two cold fronts will make quick passes over the region this weekend, bringing west and southwest winds to the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and Sunday nights. Expect moderate to heavy migration over the weekend, with more moderate movements of birds early next week as winds slacken and the skies clear.

Saturday Night

West winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft will trigger moderate to heavy levels of migration over the mid-Atlantic. While some rain showers are forecast to move through the region overnight, none are expected to be severe enough to cause fallout conditions tomorrow. Still, rain may slow some birds down and lead to heavier concentrations by Sunday morning.

Sunday Night

By Sunday night the cold front will be pressing up against the east coast, causing a strong southwesterly wind gradient and triggering heavy migration throughout the region. More rain is expected on Sunday night, but as with Saturday night, it will probably not be enough to cause any fallouts for Monday morning.

Monday Night

After the front passes on Monday, high pressure will turn winds northwest, effectively shutting down migration, even if only for one night.

Tuesday Night

A front extending across the southeastern US will set up westerly winds and heavy precipitation to our south (across the Carolinas). While this will restrict migrants from entering the mid-Atlantic from the southeast, light and variable winds over our region will allow for migrants to take flight from Virginia to New Jersey.

Birding Forecast

Sunday Morning

With moderate levels of migrants taking flight on Saturday night, expect new birds to arrive at spring migration hotspots on Saturday morning. Westerly flow should push birds to the coast, with locations experiencing birds returning to land in the late morning.

Monday Morning

Sunday night is looking good for some heavy migration, so we should see a good push of new arrivals on Monday morning. Heavy rains early Monday morning could cause localized concentrations of birds wherever storms occur, so keep an eye out on the weather radar for Monday morning.

Tuesday Morning

No migration is expected on Monday night, so birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be similar to those from the previous day.

Wednesday Morning

Migration on Tuesday night should be on a more south-->north trajectory, and in the absence of precipitation, birds will be dispersed across the landscape by morning. The best bets, therefore, will be tried and true spring migrant traps.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 12 - 16

2008-05-12T18:41:00.005-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Updated 5/14/08 @ 11:41pm...migration is HEAVY over the mid-Atlantic tonight...see the forecast below for more details...

Migration Weather Forecast

As the intense low pressure system moves offshore today, northerly winds will shut down migration into the mid-Atlantic... but it won't last long. Another cold front will approach the eastern seaboard by Wednesday, setting up southerly flow and triggering migration over the region by Wednesday evening. As high pressure over the southeast will interact with low pressure along the frontal boundary to set up a second night of migration for Thursday night. With plenty of birds already in the region, and more on the way, the birding conditions are really looking good!

Tuesday Night

Winds were originally forecast to be northerly, but have instead backed off to calm. Migration is moderate to heavy as of 10:07pm on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will approach the region on Wednesday, setting up a southwesterly flow along its leading edge. After several nights of poor migration conditions, Wednesday night should see a good push of birds into and out of the mid-Atlantic.

Thursday Night

So far the models show the latest cold front moving slowly across the region between Wednesday and Friday, so Thursday night is also looking good for migration. High pressure over the Southeast should add some westerly flow over the region, pushing birds northeastward across the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Moderate to heavy migration on Tuesday night, coupled with clear skies, will result in migrants being distributed across the landscape. Therefore, spring migrant traps will produce the best birding conditions on Wednesday morning.

Thursday Morning

All fingers are crossed for a big night of migration from Wednesday into Thursday. So far the wind forecast is calling for light southerlies on Wednesday night, and a slight chance of showers for Thursday morning. I don't see this bit of precipitation doing much to concentrate birds, so expect the best birding locations at tried-and-true spring migration hotspots.

Friday Morning

Southwest flow over Thursday night will likely bring another push of birds into the region on Friday morning. With the addition of westerly winds, we should see concentrations of migrants at coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in northeastern New Jersey). The forecast is again calling for a slight chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday, which may slow migrants down, but should do little to concentrate them. Throw the umbrella in the car, and get out there and bird!

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 8 - 12

2008-05-08T12:00:00.001-04:00

Ths.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wow! Birds are arriving by the...er...um...flock-load (?) Yeah, anyway, migrants have really begun showing up in large numbers and high diversity over the last few days. The latter part of this week is going to kick it up a notch as well. Birds arrived in big numbers overnight on Wednesday; and Friday morning is setting up the possibility for fallout conditions. Little migration is expected through the weekend, and it's looking like a wet one for the World Series of Birding, but there's always a bright side, as good numbers of birds will stick around into early next week. So dust off those bins, grab a raincoat, and get out there!

Thursday Night

As this latest front pushes eastward, it will bring west winds and heavy rain to the region. With the southwesterly winds over the Carolinas, we should see another heavy influx of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night.

Friday Night

The front that brought us several nights of heavy migration will pass east of the mid-Atlantic on Friday, allowing for moderate northwesterly winds to build in behind it. Expect little to no migration on Friday night.

Saturday Night

Winds speed will increase and continue from the north, reducing any chance of migration for Saturday night.

Sunday Night

Winds should switch around to the northwest on Sunday, and possibly make it around to westerly by Sunday night. Expect little to no migration on Sunday night unless the winds take a dramatic turn to the west.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Birding conditions should be excellent at Spring migrant traps by Friday morning, and along the frontal boundary where fallouts of migrating birds may occur. Check your local radar to see where heavy rain may have caused birds to land during the early morning hours; these will be the places to check at first light. West winds will likely push birds to the coast, and late morning fallouts of birds returning from over water will favor locations such as Sandy Hook, in northeastern New Jersey.

Saturday - Monday Morning

With no migration expected after Thursday night, birding conditions should remain similar to Friday morning, with additional local movements into optimal foraging habitat. This will provide a great opportunity for those unable to bird the latter part of the workweek to pick up some good birding over the weekend.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 5 - 8 (UPDATED)

2008-05-06T18:41:00.004-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Ths.AM

As of sunset on May 6th, migration is moderate to heavy over the mid-Atlantic with birds heading northwest on light westerly winds

Updated on 5/6/08 at 5:42pm:

The forecast for Tuesday night has changed from north winds to light westerlies which will persist all the way down into the Carolinas. Therefore I've updated the migration forecast for Tuesday night to include a moderate push of birds into the region, and increased the probability of birds overshooting the coast on Thursday morning. Otherwise we're still right on track for a big push of birds into the region on Wednesday night, as the front advances to the coast. The birding conditions continue to impress... so get out there and enjoy the fun!

Migration Weather Forecast

Alright! The Central, Mississippi and Eastern flyways have each been experiencing some heavy migration over the last few nights, bringing many birds into the northern reaches of the United States and Canada. The result has been a great increase in both diversity and density across the mid-Atlantic region, and the best birding conditions we have seen this spring. Single-digit "warbler days" have turned to double-digits, and spring migration "hotspots" such as Garret Mountain, in New Jersey, are really living up to their reputation with reports of "wave after wave of birds overhead" eventually coming over the mountain and "swarming like insects" before landing. If you haven't experienced this type of migration spectacle (an in my opinion, you really must) you should have a chance by the end of this week!

As for the forecast, the cold front responsible for the latest migration events has now pushed to our east, while the resulting high pressure has set up northwest winds across the mid-Atlantic. Northerly upper-level and surface winds are forecast to persist until Wednesday morning, which will lead to little or no migration until after mid-week. The next cold front is forecast to arrive on Wednesday night, setting us up for some heavy migration into Thursday morning.

Sunday Night

Northwest winds, both aloft and at the surface, should keep migration to a minimum on Sunday night.

Monday Night

A weak front will push down from Canada on Monday, but is expected to dissipate over the region overnight. This will set up light westerly winds and probably allow for a small movement of birds over the region. So far I wouldn't expect much in terms of incoming birds, but we could see some shorter-distance migration events.

Tuesday Night

Winds will be light westerly over the entire mid-Atlantic, setting us up for a moderate push of birds into the region. The direction and strength of the westerly winds will determine how far birds get pushed to the coast, but we could see some overshooting at places like Sandy Hook.

Wednesday Night

Here comes the next cold front! The front is expected to move into the region on Wednesday night, and if it does, expect southerly flow to arrive in advance of it. Wednesday night should be the next big flight into the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Birding conditions are great right now! Don't be fooled by the "at-a-glance" forecast; that's only indicating that no new birds are expected to arrive on Monday morning. In reality, all the new birds that arrived over the last few nights will make birding on Monday an easy diversion from going to work.

Tuesday Morning

The possibility that west winds on Monday night could trigger some migration, will mean that birds may shift eastward on Tuesday morning. Birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic will be good on Tuesday morning, while diversity will most likely remain similar to the last few days.

Wednesday Morning

With moderate levels of migration on a clear night, we should see some turnover at spring migrant traps, with older birds having moved out overnight, and new ones arriving by Wednesday morning. Stick to the spring migrant traps for the best birding, and depending on the amount of west wind in the morning, consider heading to coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in New Jersey).

Thursday Morning

Thursday morning will be the one to look out for, with heavy migration into the region expected. Thus far the models are not predicting any precipitation overnight, so birds will be well dispersed across the landscape by morning. Southwest winds will push birds to the northeast, and migration should be widespread across the entire mid-Atlantic, therefore the tried-and-true spring migrant hotspots will be the best bet for Thursday morning.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 5 - 8

2008-05-04T10:47:00.003-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Ths.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Northwest winds, both aloft and at the surface, should keep migration to a minimum on Sunday night.

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

North winds are back on the menu for Tuesday night, but with the next cold front on the way, the lull can't last long. Expect little to no migration for Tuesday evening.

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Tuesday Morning

Wednesday Morning

Similar conditions to Tuesday morning will persist through Wednesday, as little to no birds are expected to move on Tuesday night.

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 30 - May 4

2008-04-30T07:38:00.003-04:00

Wed.PM	Thr.AM	Thr.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wednesday Night

Northwest winds will keep migration to a minimum on Wednesday night, but have no fear, more migration is on the way!

Thursday Night

As a strong cold front approached from the west, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will set up southerly flow across the region and trigger moderate levels of migration for Thursday night.

Friday Night

The migration pattern should hold, as the cold front slowly pushes eastward. Expect moderate levels of migration on Friday night as well.

Saturday Night

If the forecast holds, we should expect another night of migration on Saturday... could this be the big push we've been waiting for??? It IS May already!

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Little to no migration is expected for Wednesday night, so birding conditions will be similar to previous days.

Friday Morning

South winds and clear skies on Thursday night will lead to a night of well-dispersed migrants. Tried-and-true spring migration hotspots will be the best bet for Friday morning.

Saturday Morning

As of right now, a front is expected to extend across the mid-Atlantic on Friday night/ Saturday morning, which could cause some unstable weather and maybe concentrate migrants along the frontal boundary. I'll leave out the possibility for a "fallout" right now, but we'll have to keep an eye on it. Either way, birding conditions should be good on Saturday morning.

Sunday Morning

Similar to Saturday, the front should extend farther down into the mid-Atlantic, possibly creating a barrier to birds heading north, and causing localized concentrations of birds. I'll have to update this forecast as we approach the weekend an the weather becomes more predictable. In the meantime, keep the weekend open for birding!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 27 - 30

2008-04-27T11:29:00.009-04:00

Tonight	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tues.AM	Tues.PM	Wed.AM

May is right around the corner, but even without a calendar you could probably have guessed the date just by checking out your local woodlot. Raptor migration is kicking off with increasing numbers of falcons and accipiters being reported over the mid-Atlantic. Short-distance migrants continue to thin out, while long-distance migrants such as vireos, warblers, and flycatchers increase in both diversity and abundance. This is definitely a great time to be birding!

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

The mid-Atlantic is currently bound by a cold front (to our west) and a warm front (to our north), both of which will be moving east and north respectively, during the day today. Southerly flow over North Carolina will likely trigger migration into southern Virginia, and strong thunderstorms in the early morning on Monday may lead to fallouts there as well. For the rest of the mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, PA, NJ) migration will be light at best.

Monday Night

As the front presses eastward, low pressure dominates the region, and moisture is brought up into the mid-Atlantic, winds will turn southerly and thunderstorm activity may reach severe levels. Fortunately, the current forecast is calling for the most severe thunderstorm activity to end by 8:00am, in enough time for birds to take flight. If this pans out, we could see a very large movement of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night.

Tuesday Night

Winds will turn westerly on Tuesday, and northwesterly on Tuesday night, causing migration to shut down and bringing cold air back across the region.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Migration into the region will be heaviest along the south coast of the mid-Atlantic, decreasing as one moves north over the region. Fallout conditions are possible over southeastern Virginia, but for the rest of the mid-Atlantic there will be little to no influx of new birds.

Tuesday Morning

Migration into the region should be heavy, and the widespread presence of rain will keep birds from migrating very far overnight. Therefore, birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be very good at spring migrant hotspots across the region.

Wednesday Morning

Sometimes no migration is good for birding, and if all plays out as planned, that will be the case for Wednesday morning. Good numbers and diversity of birds should be present at many locations on Wednesday morning, as northwest winds will have kept most birds from moving on Tuesday night.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 24 - 27

2008-04-24T22:10:00.006-04:00

Pretty soon the new at-a-glance forecast feature will be at the top of each post... we're just working out a few kinks before we can launch it, but will have it up very soon. In the meantime you can get an idea by the cool legend that Laura has put at the top of this page.

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

High pressure over the region will set up northerly winds aloft, with light and variable winds at the surface, allowing moderate levels of migration into the mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

Winds will turn southerly for Friday night, as low pressure approaches from the west. While winds will vary to our south, there should be enough southerly component across the region to allow for widespread migration.

Saturday Night

Low pressure will track to our northwest on Saturday and interact with high pressure off the Carolinas. This will cause southwesterly winds over the southeast, and southerly winds over the western mid-Atlantic. While winds over the eastern mid-Atlantic will remain light and easterly, the influx of birds from these two systems could result in a large influx of birds on Saturday night. Coupled with the possibility of thunderstorms, we may be setting up for possible fallout conditions.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Good numbers of birds will be arriving on Friday morning, and without any precipitation in the forecast, the best bets will be tried and true spring migration hotspots.

Saturday Morning

Similar to Friday morning, except that more birds should be moving into the region with the light southerly winds on Friday night. Again, hit the spring migrant traps since birds will be dispersed across the landscape.

Sunday Morning

Sunday morning will be the big question mark right now, but given the possibility of good migration conditions on Saturday night, and intense thunderstorms late in the night/ early Sunday morning, I'll entertain the possibility of a fallout along the frontal boundary. I'll update this part of the forecast if it should change between now and then.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24 (UPDATED)

2008-04-23T20:54:00.001-04:00

UPDATE: 8:47 PM on 4/23/08...More birds are heading into the northern mid-Atlantic tonight, as winds are light and southerly...the general trajectory is from the SW-->NE...see the birding forecast below for more details

Migration Recap

Nice clear skies, favorable winds, and a lack of precipitation set the stage for heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic this past weekend. Reports across the region ranged from big pushes of short-distance migrants such as White-throated Sparrows and Golden-crowned Kinglets, large numbers of early migrants such as Palm and Yellow-rumped Warblers and Ruby-crowned Kinglets, to the new arrivals of long-distance migrants such as Eastern Kingbird, Blue-headed and White-eyed Vireo, House Wren, Northern Parula, Black-throated Green, Black-and-white, and Yellow warblers. Excellent migration conditions often results in only moderately good birding conditions since birds are moving maximum distances and dispersing across the landscape when landing in the morning. For this reason it's best to choose 'spring migration hotspots' on the mornings following heavy, unimpeded migration. These locations attract migrants due to their topography or geographic location (in relation to the general migration patterns along specific flyways) in combination with their quality of stopover foraging habitat. Some examples are Sandy Hook, a large spit of land extending north from the northeast coast of New Jersey, Garret Mountain, another New Jersey gem at the northeast end of the Watchung mountains, and New York City's Central Park, an 'island' of quality habitat in a 'sea' of urbanization; Of course each of these locations has it's own optimal conditions for attracting migrants, but all of them will produce better on-average birding conditions during the spring. If you don't already have them staked out, check with your local Audubon Society or birding club to find out the name and location of your nearest spring hotspot, and get ready to head there after the next big flight!

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Low pressure moving slowly eastward across North Carolina is interacting with high pressure over the mid-Atlantic, causing an easterly flow over most of the region. Stormy weather to the south and less-than-optimal winds to the north are stifling migration tonight.

Monday Night

The low is expected to track slowly to the south and east during the early part of the week, bringing with it more unstable weather and uncooperative winds. Therefore the migration forecast for Monday night is looking very similar to Sunday night, with little to none expected.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the low should be south of the Delmarva Peninsula, taking with it any unstable weather. The current wind forecast for the Delmarva includes a northeasterly component, which would not bode well for migration. Should the winds lighten up, or should migrants become restless after several nights of poor conditions, we might see a push into the region as early as Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

A weak cold front will reach the region on Wednesday night, increasing the potential for migration. So far there is no precipitation associated with the front so migrants will likely be distributed across the landscape on Thursday.

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Migration is on hold for the early part of the week, but after several nights of heavy movement there are still plenty of birds across the region yet to be found. Mild temperatures and partly sunny days, combined with lots of birds, makes for some very nice birding conditions! Add to that some easterly winds to push ocean-going species closer to shore, or push migrating diurnal raptors inland, and I'm starting to consider playing hooky myself.

Thursday Morning

If the cold front scenario plays out on Wednesday night, we could see a push of birds both out-of and into the region by Thursday morning. The best locations will depend on the dominant wind direction during the migration event. Given the lack of precipitation in the forecast, the potential for fallout conditions is low, with birding conditions being best at spring migration hotspots.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24 (UPDATED)

2008-04-23T20:54:00.000-04:00

Migration Recap

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24

2008-04-23T20:50:00.002-04:00

Migration Recap

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 17 - 20

2008-04-17T15:27:00.002-04:00

Weekend Outlook

It's very easy to over-analyze the weather, and the next couple of days have been particularly frustrating (not to mention last night... don't get me started). The bottom line is we have a cold front approaching the region from the west (as most of our fronts do) and one offshore to our east. In the middle (where we are) we have two high pressure systems (one to our south, and one two our north). Because winds blow from high to low pressure and we're sandwiched between four systems, our winds 'don't know where to turn', resulting in a relatively stable and calm climate but less-than-certain conditions for migration. While migration over the next few nights will be dictated by this 'weather tango', the current outlook is good for new arrivals and a steady increase in density. The ability to predict precipitation seems as much or more uncertain as the winds, so for right now we'll bank on no precipitation, and migrants being well dispersed across the landscape upon landing. With that long caveat, I give you my latest migration forecast:

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

Winds aloft (3000 ft) should be out of the northwest and west over most of the region, with winds being variable to southerly at the surface. With clear skies for easy navigation, we should see a push of birds into and over the region tonight. Surface winds will vary between west and southeast, so I'll advise checking the radar during the night to determine which direction birds decided to migrate.

Something to note is the strong southerly flow up the Mississippi and Central flyways on Thursday night, coupled with strong upper-level winds from the west blowing over Pennsylvania and New York. It seems possible that some of the Trans-Gulf migrants making their way up these more westerly flyways could be redirected into the eastern mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

By Friday a second (and stronger) cold front will be approaching from the west. This will set up a strong southerly wind gradient along the east coast, and open up the potential for another big push into the region.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be parked right along the east coast and winds should switch around to westerly. The forecast is calling for precipitation, which may reduce the amount of birds on the wing overnight. For now it looks like the winds will be right for moderate levels of migration into the region, but will likely be tempered by the intensity of any precipitation.

Sunday Night

By Sunday night the front will push off the east coast and high pressure will build in from the northwest. Winds will be out of the north, effectively shutting down migration over the Mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

More migration into the region coupled with some intense thunderstorms will mean new birds, increased diversity, and the possibility for fallout conditions where birds and weather intersect. The entire region will experience an influx of new birds by Saturday morning. Grab a raincoat and go birding!

Sunday Morning

Birding on Sunday morning will be good at worst, and great at best. If the precipitation causes birds to think twice about migrating, the same conditions that existed on Saturday morning will continue through the weekend. Should birds decide to migrate on the west/southwest winds, the region will experience the third successive influx of migrants, favoring all coastal locations as well as inland migrant traps.

Monday Morning

Monday might be the "nicest" day for birding, simply because the rain should have moved out, and the north winds on Sunday night will have precluded birds from leaving the region. For those of you who don't need to be at work on Monday morning, head to your favorite migrant trap!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 8 - 11

2008-04-08T07:39:00.005-04:00

Updated 4/11/08

MIGRATION ALERT FOR MD, DE, PA, and NJ: Heavy migration last night will produce great birding conditions this morning (at least before the heavy rains begin). Spring migrant traps (such as Garret Mountain or Belleplain State Forest in NJ) should be the best bets for coastal states, as no weather was present to concentrate birds. For the interior states, areas along the frontal boundary which experienced heavy rainfall early this morning should be best.

Updated 4/9/08

Changes in the weather forecast over the last 24 hours have lead me to update the migration and birding forecasts. Be on alert for strong migration tonight (Wednesday night) and the possibility of good birding tomorrow and Friday.

Migration Recap

As far as nocturnal migration goes, we are officially in a 'holding pattern', and have been since last weekend. High pressure over the region has set up a northeasterly flow and reduced the chance of migration into the Mid-Atlantic, while a stationary front over the Ohio Valley has allowed birds an inland passage into the Northeast.

Despite the recent dry spell, the birding across the Mid-Atlantic is pretty great right now, with many songbirds piling up in anticipation of migration, as well as many non-songbirds actively migrating throughout the region. Great Blue Herons and Great Egrets are showing up in good numbers, and the views of Red-throated loons can be downright awesome, with double-digit groups viewable at coastal locations such as the Concrete Ship in Cape May. On the songbird front, early warblers such as Pine, Yellow-throated and Louisiana Waterthrush are on territories, while Palms are just beginning to move through the region. If all the migration going on in the southern half of the country is any indication, we're in store for a real wallop of birds over the next ten days. Bring on the cold fronts!

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

No migration expected given northwest winds.

Wednesday Night

A cold front will cross the region overnight, causing winds to turn south and southwesterly during the night and early morning. This front has already produced heavy migration across the Central and Mississippi Flyways, as well as the western portion of the Eastern Flyway (on Tuesday night), therefore I expect the same to occur over the greater Eastern Flyway on Wednesday night. This should result in a heavy influx of birds overnight.

Thursday Night

The front that passed on Wednesday night will probably stall over the region on Thursday, and winds will differ in relation to the frontal boundary. Migration conditions should be favorable south of the front (which is expected to bisect the region over central New Jersey), whereas northwest winds will build in to the north. Identifying this boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

Friday Night

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

~~Minus a few birds from the northern part of the region that might get out on easterly winds on Tuesday night, conditions should remain pretty much the same as the last few days.~~ Based on the radar from this morning, it appears that the front approached the region faster than anticipated. Birds did migrate along the western half of the Eastern Flyway, bringing new birds up into Pennsylvania, Maryland, western Virginia, and western New Jersey.

Thursday Morning

Thursday morning has great birding potential, based on the patterns of migration already caused by the approaching front. I'll go with the optimistic forecast for now, and hope for southwest winds to guide birds into the region from the Delmarva Peninsula. Given the wind direction and lack of precipitation in the forecast the best places for finding birds, then, will be spring migrant traps such as Garret Mountain (in central NJ), Sandy Hook (north coast of NJ), and Long Beach, Long Island (NY).

Friday Morning

With a backing warm front and southeast winds, we could see an influx of birds into the southern part of the region. Identification of the frontal boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

4/11/08: I have posted the most recent conditions to www.woodcreeper.com.

Because of the model uncertainty I'll be updating this forecast as conditions change, so check back often!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration forecast for April 6 - 8

2008-04-06T11:02:00.003-04:00

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday - Tuesday Night

It appears we are heading into a little migration dry spell, as the forecast for the early part of the week is calling for northeast winds across the region, and north winds to our south. This will most likely limit any incoming migration. Additionally, conditions will improve over the Northeast, which may allow for an exodus of migration-ready birds out of the region. In the meantime, birding conditions should be good across the Mid-Atlatic as a nice influx of birds arrived on Friday night/ Saturday morning.

Birding Forecast

Sunday - Tuesday

Plenty of birds are being reported across the region with some new arrivals such as Palm Warblers at Sandy Hook, and an early Eastern Kingbird in Salem Co., NJ. Large flocks of Juncos, Golden-crowned Kinglets, and White-throated Sparrows are also being seen piling up as they head north. This is the "time of transition" when we're really going to see diversity shift before our eyes. With the influx of new birds on Friday night, and the lack of migration over the last two nights, birding conditions remain good across the Mid-Atlantic. Best locations will be those that provide optimal foraging habitat (as opposed to coastal areas where birds may have landed on Saturday morning). This pattern should hold through Tuesday, with the slight chance that some birds migrate out of the area from the northern part of the region.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 4 - 6

2008-04-04T15:29:00.006-04:00

Migration Alert for Friday Night - April 4

The weather models have changed for tonight (Friday night), therefore I have decided to update the migration and birding forecasts. Changes have been italicised for easy location. Change is good!!

Migration Recap

Last weekend we saw a strong front push through the region, allowing many birds to leave the mid-Atlantic on their northerly pursuit, but also bringing with it plenty of the expected species and a few surprises. Of the kinglets, Ruby-crowned are beginning to make their presence felt, as the large flocks of Golden-crowned are heading north. Eastern Phoebes are everywhere now, and Tree Swallows are already defending territories. Chipping Sparrows have joined the party, as have Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers (in the southern part of the region, at least). Still Common Redpolls are being spotted at local feeders, while I received a very early report of four Indigo Buntings visiting a feeder on Tuesday, in Hackettstown, New Jersey.

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will eventually lead to heavy precipitation moving over the Mid-Atlantic. Similar to last week, Friday night will experience a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic, at least until the progressing front shuts it down sometime during the night. This should allow for a good influx of migrant into the region and increase the chance of LOCALIZED FALLOUTS at the point where the front intercepts migrating birds.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northerly, shutting down migration over the region until the passage of the next front.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

The current weather forecast suggests that good migration conditions will exist across the southeast and Gulf states, with strong southerly flow directing birds into the Mid-Atlantic region. Since a front is forecast to cross the region during the early morning hours, the radar will be the best tool for determining where the front intersects the migration "cloud". The best birding locations will be those at the intersection. Since the overnight winds are going to be out of the southwest, coastal locations will be favored (such as Sandy Hook in NJ). Rain is expected to persist into Saturday, although most of the rain should have passed beyond the northern part of the region by morning. If all goes as planned (ha!) it should be worth dragging along the added raincoat.

Sunday Morning

When weighing bird density AND comfort, Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around. Bird densities will be highest wherever they ended up Saturday morning, but will also disperse into optimal foraging habitat thorughout the weekend (such as Belleplain State Forest in New Jersey).

I'll update this forecast on Sunday by noon (unless things change drastically beforehand) but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Birds and weather heading this way

2008-04-03T18:36:00.007-04:00

Migration Recap

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

By Thursday night - light south winds will build in as a cold front approaches from the west. Moist air will travel up the front, destabilizing the atmosphere over the region, and leading to a chance of thunderstorms. Because of the unstable weather to the south, I don't expect much migration into the region, therefore migration will likely result in a net-loss of birds from the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will lead to heavy precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic, and possibly some snow/sleet inland. Similar to last week, Friday night will produce a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic. This should allow for a good influx of southern migrant as far north as Virgina, and possibly further depending on the severity of regional precipitation.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northwesterly. Migration over the northern part of the region will cease at this point, but migration to the south could give us a glimpse of things to come during the next front early next week.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Migration out of the region, coupled with little to no influx of new birds, should result in a decline in apparent migrants at most locations. Because of the southeasterly flow, inland sites in the northern region may pick up some new birds by morning and will therefore be the best bet for bird density on Friday. The forecasted rain may make for unfavorable birding conditions anyway.

Saturday Morning

After a night of southwesterly winds it will be good to check the radar and decide whether birds did, indeed, migrate through the rain. If not, the conditions will remain similar to Friday... but if they did, it'll be important to determine if and when birds were forced to land. Otherwise, the east coast will be favored given the southwesterly flow. The precipitation forecast for Saturday morning? RAIN RAIN RAIN.

Sunday Morning

Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around since the forecast is calling for NW winds and clear skies. Birding conditions will be contingent on whether birds were able (willing?) to push through the precipitation into the region.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Big migration on the way

2008-03-31T19:46:00.020-04:00

Updated: April 2, 2008 @ 11:23 AM
Winds have switched around to the NW overnight, so no migration is expected for this evening. The Wednesday Night/ Thursday Morning forecast has been removed to reflect this switch. A new forecast for the rest of the week will be posted by Thursday afternoon. Hopefully you're out there finding the migrants that showed up last night/ this morning!
Good Birding - DLP

As promised, migration is really picking up as of tonight. A powerful low pressure system is moving slowly northeastward across the Great Lakes, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient as it approaches the east coast. Favorable winds coupled with the prospect of rain each night are tempting me to cry "FALLOUT!"... but I will restrain myself, as It's still early in the migration season and birds aren't desperate to migrate as of yet. Still, we could see some of the first large-scale migration over the next two nights, so read the forecast below, clean off your binoculars, and get ready to bird.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

Low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure off the eastern seaboard are creating a strong southerly wind gradient over the Mid-Atlantic. Tonight expect southeasterly winds at the surface, with strong southerly winds around 3000 feet which, together, will definitely trigger migration over the region. Winds are expected to be southerly over Virginia and the Carolinas, which will really help bring new birds into the Mid-Atlantic for Monday morning. Rainfall tonight should be light which reduces the chance of a localized fallout, but be sure to check the radar in the morning to be sure a thunderstorm didn't pop up in yout area during the night.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night low pressure will have moved east into Quebec, shifting the wind direction to southwest, and creating a direct trajectory from the Gulf Coast up into the Northeastern US. Again, precipitation is forecast for Tuesday night with an increased chance of late-night thunderstorms. This type of precipitation has the potential to cause localized fallout conditions, so keeping an eye on the weather will be imperetive for choosing the best birding location on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night the low pressure system will have pushed into Newfoundland, and high pressure will build in behind the front, turning the winds around to the WNW. Should the winds remain more westerly, and given the forecast for strong southerly flow up the central flyway, we could see typically western species being redirected to the east coast, although this type of prediction is much less... well... predictable. Alternatively, if the winds remain northwesterly we can expect a halt in migration until the next front makes its way to the east on Friday.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Southeasterly surface winds will favor inland locations such as the northern Delaware Bay shore (NJ), the Delaware River floodplain (PA and NJ) and Garret Mountain (NJ). Because of the chance of precipitation it will be a good idea to check the radar in the morning to see if and where birds were forced to land due to weather.

Wednesday Morning

The wind-shift to southwesterly will favor coastal locations across the mid-Atlantic, such as Sandy Hook (NJ) and Cape May (NJ). With thunderstorms possible it will be important to check the radar to determine if and when birds were forced to land. Since winds will be strong, birds may overshoot the coast and therefore we could experience late-morning fallouts at coastal locations. Hopefully the southwesterly flow will bring more southerly migrants to the region and increase the chance of a western vagrant species.

Thursday Morning

While not as easy to predict, the strong westerly winds forecast for Wednesday night could lead to more displaced western birds by Thursday morning (although the probability is quite low given how early it is in the spring). Otherwise, if the wind switches to the northwest, migration will likely shut down until the next cold front approaches our area on Friday.

I'll update this forecast on Wednesday afternoon, but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

No April fools- Just lots of birds

2008-03-30T06:34:00.010-04:00

Migration has slowed a bit over the last few days, but don't you go getting used to it, because migration into the Mid-Atlantic is about to ramp up, bigtime. A powerful low pressure system is moving slowly northeastward across the Great Lakes, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient as it approaches the east coast. We could see favorable winds in our region as early as Sunday night, improving greatly through Monday and Tuesday. The possibility of rain early in the week could also set us up for some fallout conditions.

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday

stalled winter irruptives, but good Dovekies!

2008-01-18T08:18:00.000-05:00

The southward and eastward march of a good number of winter irruptives--Bohemian Waxwings, Pine Grosbeaks, redpolls, crossbills--seems to have stalled ever since the last notable push just a couple days or so before Christmas Day. At that time, Bohemians and a single Pine Grosbeak made it to northern New Jersey, as did a single likely Hoary Redpoll. But not much new since.

But don't get too depressed, yet! In many years the height of such southward movements do not peak until February (and even early March). Although in some years such irruptive flights do fizzle as the winter progresses, as seems to have happened this year with montane species out West.

There do seem to be a good number of Dovekies offshore this year, however. And several birds (most likely in poor shape) have been found at mainland inlets and jetties. Winter alcid numbers often don't peak until February and March.

--Paul Lehman

Late November Rarities/Weather

2007-11-29T06:46:00.000-05:00

In 2007, we seem to have had a good run of rarities between Cape May County and central New England beginning the weekend of November 17-18. In the Cape May region alone there's been the Lesser Nighthawk, Bullock's Oriole, up to 98 Cave Swallows, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, White-winged Dove, plus the Barnacle Goose, a late Least Flycatcher and Rose-breasted Grosbeak. Add to that, an Ash-throated Flycatcher and Cave Swallow at Brigantine NWR, more Cave Swallows along the state's northern coast, and Sandy Hook's assemblage of Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, and, perhaps rarest of all for late November, a Great Crested Flycatcher. On Long Island there's been 1-2 Ash-throats, perhaps 4 W. Kingbirds, Pink-footed and Barnacle Goose, several Cave Swallows, with additional Ash-throats in Queens and Staten Island. More Cave Swallows in Connecticut (and a continuing Common Ground-Dove), Rhode Island's first Bell's Vireo plus a few Cave Swallows, and Massachusetts has had Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Fly, W. Kingbird, W. Grebe, several Cave Swallows, etc.

So, the peak period of the western passerines this year--particularly involving the largest numbers of Cave Swallows and Ash-throats--has occurred late in the month, about two weeks or so later than the usual peak-period for these species around mid-month. Chance?? A mild month?? Well, there were two good weather events in the latter half of the month that may have facilitated the run of birds: two warm low-pressure systems that tracked east and northeast through the area each followed by sharp cold fronts, one system just before the weekend of Nov 17-18 and the next one which brought us our mild Thanksgiving Day (and day before). And voila, following those two systems, we've had the best rarity influxes of the fall!

major cold front late Thursday; late-fall trends

2007-11-14T17:10:00.000-05:00

The strong cold front heading this way and scheduled to bring us rain and changing wind on Thursday may bring us some interesting things on Friday or soon thereafter. The couple recent days of mild weather and one day of rain forecast before the front clears late Thursday may well bring us some reverse migrants, a western stray or two, and more swallows. The colder weather and fairly strong west wind forecast for Friday should be good for a late raptor flight and quite possibly for a good push of Cave Swallows at the Cape May hawkwatch. The swallows may be found elsewhere in the state and region as well.

Despite the appearance of several species of winter irruptives this year, so far it has NOT been an especially good late-autumn season for western strays and late and/or reverse migrants. Overall passerine numbers have been largely UNexceptional, most sparrows seems scarce, and there have been very few unusual late warblers, etc., since the end of October. Only a few Baltimore Orioles, a couple Barn Swallows, the only November hummingbird so far is a late Ruby-throated in Cumberland County, etc. Cave Swallows have been in reasonable numbers, however, with up to 10 per day (usually 2-5 birds) for the past two weeks. Maybe this system currently heading our way will improve things!!

--Paul Lehman

Eastern Irruptives Progress

2007-11-10T08:18:00.000-05:00

This discussion covers the entire Northeast/mid-Atlantic, but is germane specifically to the Cape May region as well.

Through early November, here's a brief summary of the progress of various irruptive species in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states:
Although Northern Saw-whet Owls are in fairly good numbers, no signs yet of the northern owls, and Northern Goshawks and Rough-legged Hawks are being seen in UNremarkable numbers. It is a good year so far for Northern Shrikes throughout much of New England, with a few birds now south to northern New Jersey. Everyone knows about all the Red-breasted Nuthatches, and it has been excellent for widespread Purple Finch numbers, and good for Pine Siskins. The heavyweights include large numbers of Bohemian Waxwings already locally in upstate New York and northern New England, with a few south to n. Massachusetts; Pine Grosbeaks are well represented also in northern New York and northern New England, with a few south to n. Massachusetts; Evening Grosbeaks are scattered everywhere south through New England, with some morning fly-overs as far south as southern New Jersey; and Common Redpolls are scattered in small groups south to Long Island, with several singles south also to southern New Jersey. Crossbills, however, seem to have gone largely elsewhere, although a few Reds have been seen, including several in southern New Jersey (but where they may have originated from a possible stealth population in the state's Pine Barrens). There had been earlier talk of a possible flight of chickadees, and a large flight of Blue Jays, this fall, but so far there doesn't appear to be obvious signs of those, at least not here in the coastal mid-Atlantic. (Yes, there are small flocks of migrant Blue Jays flying by, but the numbers are not exceptional.)

--Paul Lehman

Tuesday cold front (and southwesterly flow)

2007-11-06T05:51:00.002-05:00

The cold front approaching Tuesday morning (6 November) is bringing some rain and--most important--a reasonable southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of the front. This set-up is good for bringing reverse migrants and perhaps a westerly or southerly stray, although it would have been better if the S/SW flow had been of longer duration (and also if the center of the low had tracked northeast from the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley, rather than due east and tracking much farther north, eastward across the Great Lakes.

Now that I have sufficiently covered myself via all these caveats (!), the much colder air and northwesterly flow that will follow the passage of the front late today will probably bring a bit of a push of Cave Swallows to Cape May on Wednesday or so, plus some other interesting November goodie just might turn up. There should also be a hawk flight as well as possibly a push of more of the northern irruptives that are starting to appear (e.g., Evening Grosbeaks). We'll see....

--Paul Lehman

Winter's arrival to the mid-Atlantic

2007-11-02T08:21:00.000-04:00

Hey Birdchasers.

Fall migration is quickly turning into winter migration, as seabirds and ducks make their way south along the coast, and Red-tailed Hawks, Golden Eagles, and Northern Goshawks become the raptors du jour from inland ridge tops. While nocturnal migration is less diverse as we transition from autumn leaves to snowy fields; large flocks of winter passerines are still making their way south into the Mid-Atlantic. November can be a wonderful time to see large numbers of these cold-hearty birds. White-throated Sparrows, Hermit Thrushes, and Northern Flickers, to name a few.

The woods out here in Somerset New Jersey are noisy with the resident chickadees (not sure which one…we're in the hybrid zone), Tufted Titmice and White-breasted Nuthatches. The Eastern Red Ceder stands are full of both Ruby-crowned and Golden-crowned Kinglets, and I'm hopeful they will host a few Northern Saw-whet Owls this winter, given the already high numbers of birds making their way into the US from Canada.

Migration forecast

While my migration forecasts will be less frequent than in the fall, I will try and get the word out for significant migration weather as it approaches. The next few nights are calling for strong northeast to northerly winds, and last night the radar indicated a strong push of migrants into the Mid-Atlantic region. Along with the previously mentioned winter passerines, birders should be finding Red-breasted Nuthatches, Pine Siskins and Evening Grosbeaks, as they are being reported more frequently each day. Keep an eye out for Bohemian Waxwing, Pine Grosbeak, Northern Shrike, and Common Redpoll since they are already showing up ahead of schedule in the Northeast.
If there ever was a winter to start birding, this may be the one.

Stay warm and bird hard.

David (woodcreeper.com)

Useful Links:

Interested in raptor and/or seabird numbers? check out the View from the Field for daily counts from the Avalon Seawatch

Want to know what's headed our way? I usually check Derek Lovitch's Maine Birding Blog on MaineToday.com

Of course, you can spend all day searching the regional bird lists and rare bird alerts on Jack Siler's birdingonthe.net

Migration Alert for the Mid-Atlantic

2007-10-28T21:17:00.000-04:00

MIGRATION ALERT

With the cold front well off the east coast and north winds built in across the region, migration is underway tonight. As of 9:00pm the Northeast coast is experiencing a moderate level of migration, with very heavy migration beginning in New Jersey and continuing down into the Carolinas. This will result in a big push of new birds into Cape May, New Jersey and fall migration hotspots throughout the region by tomorrow morning.

Good Birding

David
woodcreeper.com

Fri/Sat storm, Cave Swallows, reverse migrants, etc.

2007-10-28T16:40:00.000-04:00

The warm sector of the Eastern storm on Friday and Saturday had a long fetch to the due south, all the way to Florida and beyond--tapping in to mild air and moisture all the way to include remnants of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Before the cold front swung through late Saturday, some of us discussed what might turn up along the East Coast in its wake, and we included such Florida-originating species such as Gray Kingbird, or species from even farther south such as austral migrant Fork-tailed Flycatcher. Also, seemed like a good flow to bring back reverse migrants from Florida and the Southeast. Once the winds switched to northwest on Sunday and pushed birds back to the coast and down to peninsula tips such as Cape May, we might see what turned up.

Classic November storms with large warm-sector, conveyor-belt fetches to the southwest, all the way to places such as Texas, are what likely help transport large numbers of Cave Swallows, small numbers of Ash-throated Flycatchers, and other rarities and late, reverse migrants north and northeast to the Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic. This latest storm instead had a more due-south fetch right along the Eastern Seaboard. But a Cave Swallow turned up at Cape May on 28 October nonetheless, although it may have been a bird that came up several days earlier, as there have been a couple Caves already a few days ago in Ontario. An adult male Summer Tanager in Cape May on the 28th could well have been a reverse migrant that came back north along the Atlantic Coast from somewhere in the direction of Florida in the warm sector, ahead of the cold front.

--Paul Lehman

Autumn Weekend Update

2007-10-28T00:02:00.000-04:00

UPDATE! Current Conditions

The weather has cleared and birds are getting blown from west to east. Look out for good densities of migrants along the coast tomorrow, especially in Southern New Jersey and the entire Delaware shore.

Saturday Night

West winds could mean birds for the region, especially if northwest winds have built in further north, behind the front. If so, Cape May could see an epic flight during Autumn Weekend, and great birding conditions on Sunday morning.

Sunday Night

By Sunday night the front will have passed and northwest winds will have built in over the region. This will set off a major flight over the Mid-Atlantic, favoring coastal migration hotspots throughout the area. If these conditions play out, it might be a good idea to extend your stay in Cape May as the birding will be awesome on Monday morning!

Good Birding

David woodcreeper.com

Here they come!

High pressure is forecast to dominate the region, bringing with it light southeasterly winds tonight, and southerly winds through the weekend. A cold front may push through by the end of the weekend or early next week so we'll have to keep an eye out to see when the next push of migrants is to be expected. In the meantime, plenty of birds have been seen around the region, with numbers of warblers still high, and sparrow diversity on the rise. Flickers, Sapsuckers and various Thrushes (including both Bicknell's and Gray-cheeked) have shown up in good numbers over the last few days, as have both Ruby-crowned and Golden Crowned Kinglets. Fall is upon us, and the pleasure of birding in this beautiful weather cannot be understated.

Good Birding!

David (www.woodcreeper.com)

Mid-Atlantic bracing for major flight

2007-09-28T15:57:00.000-04:00

High pressure building in behind the cold front that passed last night has already begun to produce northwest winds over the region. Tonight we should expect a massive flight across the Eastern Flyway, with a heavy influx of birds into the East Coast. We should see a second wave of migrants again on Sunday night, with winds forecast to be out of the north. Conditions will stay relatively good for migration through mid-week, but easterly winds and lack of precipitation will result in birds being scattered across the landscape. The best bet for a birding "Big Day" will be Saturday morning along the coast, with good conditions across the region persisting through the weekend.

Good Birding

David (www.woodcreeper.com

As autumn approaches, so do the birds

2007-09-22T20:10:00.000-04:00

As summer turns to autumn on Sunday, we'll continue with the cold front/ high pressure pattern that dominates during this time of the year, and which is responsible for the progressive migration of birds from the breeding grounds to their winter locales.

Migration Weather

A cold front is moving across the region tonight, and bringing with in westerly and northwesterly winds. We should see some migration over New York and Pennsylvania tonight, with some of this movement making its way east into the coastal states by morning. Sunday night should see northwest winds across the region which will bring another (and likely much larger) push of migrants into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. This pattern continues into the week with another cold front forecast for Thursday.

Birding Forecast

Where to bird? With northwest winds in the forecast, coastal locations will be good choices over the next couple of days. Check the morning winds at your local coastal migrant trap to see if birds are to be expected. Is there an easterly sea breeze at daybreak? If so, try a site further inland. Since no precipitation is forecast for this front, migrants will be well dispersed across the landscape- so stick with the tried-and-true migrant traps.

Migration in action

Derek Lovitch, a New Jersey native and fantastic birder/naturalist, posted an account of a migration event in his neck of the woods (Portland Maine). You can view it here, on his regular column for the Maine Today online newspaper.
And of course, you should always check the View From the Field to see the results of the daily research conducted by CMBO staff, and View From the Cape to find out about what birds are being seen out-and-about Cape May.

Good Birding!

David ( http://www.woodcreeper.com )

East winds and birds aloft through Friday

2007-09-17T22:47:00.000-04:00

It looks like east winds should persist over the Mid-Atlantic through Friday, as high pressure dominates the region. Each night will experience moderate levels of migration, limited only by the number of migrants ready for the journey. A cold front will move into the area by the weekend, but we'll get to that later in the week. In the meantime, inland sites should be very birdy, with coastal sites lagging a bit due to the easterly winds.

Good Birding

David (www.woodcreeper.com)

The Eastern Flyway is Ramping Up!

2007-09-14T13:59:00.001-04:00

Recap of last week

Southerly winds dominated the first half of the week for the Eastern Flyway, keeping migration levels low in light winds, and downright absent in heavy ones. By Tuesday night, though, things began to change. A passing cold front on Tuesday night brought with it strong westerly winds that kicked up at about 11:00pm. Because very little was migrating over the east coast prior to the wind shift, we can actually see the birds originating from points west and entering the eastern radars at about that time. Here's a link to the radar and my post on www.woodcreeper.com. Wednesday also saw migration up and down the eastern flyway as winds were northerly over the region, and last night migration was concentrated along the extreme eastern seaboard due to strong northerly winds but an abrupt change to southerly winds just to the west (along the advancing cold front affecting our area today).

Forecast

Okay, that brings us up to speed! Over the next couple of days we've got some interesting weather in store, which could result in some great migration and birding opportunities.

Friday night to Sunday morning

Here are two wind maps to help clarify the forecast below. This is the 900mb (3000 feet) wind forecast for Friday night:

And here is the one for Saturday night:

Strong southerly flow will dominate overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Migration conditions should be poor for the east coast, but heavy migration is expected to the west (Great Lakes & Ohio Valley) which will help stock the eastern flyway for the following night. The front will clear the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday night, and winds will shift to strong north westerlies; excellent conditions for pushing birds to the coast and creating the spectacular fall birding conditions we all hope for.

No precipitation is forecast for Saturday night, so the best locations for Sunday morning will likely be coastal migrant traps.

Should things change, I'll post and update to this forecast on Saturday night.
You can also stop by www.woodcreeper.com to get your up-to-date radar and interpretations, each morning during migration.

Good Birding

David

Mid-Atlantic Forecast

2007-09-10T21:38:00.001-04:00

A series of weak fronts are moving across the country bringing with them southerly winds to their east, and northerly winds to their west. This has meant a mix of migration across the Eastern Flyway, depending on where the frontal boundary falls before sunset. Currently there is a front bisecting the mid-Atlantic from the northeast to the southwest, causing migration conditions in western New York and Pennsylvania but not along the extreme east coast from Virginia up through eastern New York.

Another cold front is forecast to cross the region between Tuesday and Wednesday, and high pressure is forecast to build in behind it which would set us up for another big push of migrants. If the wind forecast for Wednesday night is correct (for strong northwest winds over the Great Lakes and west over Pennsylvania and southern New York), we could see some interesting diversity into the coastal states by Thursday morning.

Good Birding

David

More birds heading our way + a rarity in Cape May!

2007-09-04T17:47:00.001-04:00

Mid-Atlantic Forecast

With high pressure situated over the Great Lakes and off the Carolina coast, we've got a nice line of northwest winds to pull birds from the northeastern US into the Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. The wind direction turns more north as one heads over western New York state, and Pennsylvania, and more easterly as one moves toward the New Jersey coast. Wind aloft are forecast out of the northwest, which will drive migration to the coast until they descend, at which point the easterlies will likely push them back inland.

Expect a good push of birds down into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, although with no precipitation in the forecast, birds will be dispersed across the landscape, so your best chances will be the "tried and true" fall migrant traps such as Cape May (the bay shore should be better on east winds). Areas along the Delaware River may also be good on the east winds. Moving south into DE, MD, VA and NC, winds will be primarily out of the northeast on the coast and northwest inland, creating a funnel of bird migration through these states.

The Next Few Days

Two low pressure systems are forecast to develop later in the week, one subtropical system off the Carolinas, and another above the Great Lakes. These should result in southerly winds from Wednesday night into the weekend. There should be little to no migration during this period.

Hot News

Wow! There's a Say's Phoebe at The Meadows in Cape May, NJ!

Here's a photo of the bird taken today by Sam Galick, who's working as a counter at the Morning Flight at Higbee's Beach this fall.

Say's Phoebe
Originally uploaded by Sam Galick.

And here's a map, to give you an idea of where "The Meadows" are:

View Larger Map

There are also several maps and checklists available for the Cape May area right on this site: http://www.birdcapemay.org/checklist.shtml

Good Birding

David

www.woodcreeper.com

Something birdy this way comes...

2007-09-03T18:04:00.000-04:00

Updated @ 9:02 PM
Well, it doesn't look like the winds are switching fast enough, as there are only low densities of birds seen taking flight on the Binghamton and Albany, New York radars. Central Pennsylvania is showing a sronger signal and it appears to be heading ESE, which could influence some birding in New Jersey tomorrow, but as I said, it's not a big push thus far. The forecast remains the same for south of New Jersey, as high densities of birds are showing up on all radars for the Southeast coastal states.

Previous Forecast

Well, so much for two nights of southerly winds...I guess we 'll just have to settle for last night. That 's all tongue-in-cheek of course, since we 're all waiting anxiously for the next push of birds.

The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic

A dry cold front will move across our area tonight, pushing high pressure out to sea. The front is quite weak, meaning that the gradient along the front should not produce strong southerly winds as the last few have. The front is also expected to stretch horizontally across the region, meaning that the winds that are along the leading edge will be blowing from the west rather than the southwest.

Looking to the north, where birds will be coming from, the winds at 3000 feet are forecast to be from the northwest at 15kts by 8:00pm. Since most land birds (such as warblers, orioles, tanagers, etc.) migrate between 1,000 and 3,000 feet above the earth 's surface, and will actively move within the atmosphere to take advantage of better winds, this could result in a big push of new birds into the area by morning. Not only that, but if the local winds are from the west, we 'll have a good chance for high densities of birds at coastal locations.

Points south of New Jersey

For points south of New Jersey along the Eastern Flyway, the winds are forecast to be northwest inland, and northeast at the coast, maintaining a good flow for migration all the way down through Florida.

Good Birding

David
www.woodcreeper.com

"Here a bird, there a bird, everywhere a bird, bird"

2007-09-02T18:18:00.000-04:00

So did you get out there and do some birding?

The last two nights saw some heavy migration across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and as a result the birding has picked up at many migration hotspots across the region. I got so excited watching the evening radar on Friday night, that I had to go out and take some digital video through my telescope. You can view some of the clips by clicking this link.

Check out the national forecast to see Paul's recent comments about migration happenings across the US, and also the regional birding lists at birdingonthe.net to see what birds are showing up in specific states. Around the Mid-Atlantic we've seen big pushes of Prairie Warblers, American Redstarts, Magnolia Warblers, and Black-and-white Warblers. Coastal locations such as Cape May have been reporting many more species including some less common ones (as is always the case with this great migrant trap) such as Dickcissel. Buff-breasted Sandpipers, Upland Sandpipers, and American Golden Plovers (collectively referred to as "grasspipers" because of their tendency to be found in open grass fields rather than along the shore) have been showing up at sod farms and similar locales. Hudsonian Godwits and both Wilson's and Red-necked Phalaropes have also made appearances along the east coast as of late.

The next few days

Given the number of birds that have moved over the last couple of nights, it'll be nice to have two nights of southerly winds to slow things down. In doing so, birds will settle into good habitat to feed and build up fat stores for the next leg of their journey. For the birder, it can be a great time to find diverse feeding flocks of migrant landbirds, as well as large staging groups of shorebirds. A few nights of "down time" will also mean a larger push of birds as soon as the weather turns favorable again.

The forecast

A cold front is forecast to move across our area Monday night and into Tuesday morning, with northwest winds building in behind it as it clears Tuesday afternoon. We should therefore see the next big push of migrants on Tuesday night, followed by another push on Wednesday night and possibly a third on Thursday night (if the north winds persist). With northwest winds forecast for Tuesday night, Wednesday morning should be a great time to head for coastal hotspots. In the meantime, enjoy your Labor Day finding some of the most recent arrivals in your area!

Good Birding

David
www.woodcreeper.com

Labor Day Weekend Birding Outlook

2007-08-30T09:00:00.000-04:00

Planning a weekend birding trip? Well, this Labor Day Weekend may just be a doozey. The high pressure system that has been dominating our area, and keeping migration low, will move offshore today and allow a cold front to move into the region tonight through Friday. As the front passes, winds will switch from west to northwest and eventually north, setting the stage for another good push of migrants into our region. With a westerly component to the wind, coastal sites will be especially good for birding...if you can avoid the crowds of beach goers! We could see birds moving as early as tonight, so keep an eye on the weather and check back here for updates.

Good Birding

David
www.woodcreeper.com