Recap of last week

Southerly winds dominated the first half of the week for the Eastern Flyway, keeping migration levels low in light winds, and downright absent in heavy ones. By Tuesday night, though, things began to change. A passing cold front on Tuesday night brought with it strong westerly winds that kicked up at about 11:00pm. Because very little was migrating over the east coast prior to the wind shift, we can actually see the birds originating from points west and entering the eastern radars at about that time. Here's a link to the radar and my post on www.woodcreeper.com. Wednesday also saw migration up and down the eastern flyway as winds were northerly over the region, and last night migration was concentrated along the extreme eastern seaboard due to strong northerly winds but an abrupt change to southerly winds just to the west (along the advancing cold front affecting our area today).

Forecast

Okay, that brings us up to speed! Over the next couple of days we've got some interesting weather in store, which could result in some great migration and birding opportunities.

Friday night to Sunday morning

Here are two wind maps to help clarify the forecast below. This is the 900mb (3000 feet) wind forecast for Friday night:

And here is the one for Saturday night:


Strong southerly flow will dominate overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Migration conditions should be poor for the east coast, but heavy migration is expected to the west (Great Lakes & Ohio Valley) which will help stock the eastern flyway for the following night. The front will clear the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday night, and winds will shift to strong north westerlies; excellent conditions for pushing birds to the coast and creating the spectacular fall birding conditions we all hope for.

No precipitation is forecast for Saturday night, so the best locations for Sunday morning will likely be coastal migrant traps.

Should things change, I'll post and update to this forecast on Saturday night.
You can also stop by www.woodcreeper.com to get your up-to-date radar and interpretations, each morning during migration.

Good Birding

David