UPDATED 10/16 @ 8:36PM

So the expected southerly winds are taking the early part of the night off, and light west winds are prevailing as of 8:30 PM. Many birds are on the move across the northeast tonight, and many are heading SE into the Mid-Atlantic states. Birding at inland and coastal locations tomorrow should be very productive as I am seeing a much larger influx into the region tonight than there has been over the last few evenings. Geesh…this migration stuff is like trying to predict the weather…wait…
I'll leave my last forecast below for your amusement, and for its validity after tonight.

Migration over the Mid-Atlantic

After several good nights of migration we'll now begin to switch gears for a few days.

Short-term forecast

High pressure will build in tonight as a strong low associated with a cold front begins to inch across the central US. This will set up a light southerly flow, which will increase to a strong southerly flow as we progress through the week (and as the low approaches). Therefore, the only chance for migration might be tonight, if winds are very light and birds are anxious, otherwise we shouldn't expect any migration until after the cold front makes its way north and east of us.

Long-term outlook

Right now the forecast has the cold front clearing sometime on Sunday, and strong northwest flow building in on Sunday night. This is a bit far into the future to be predicting weather, so we'll have to watch and see how it plays out. If it holds, expect a big push of migrants on Sunday night, since many will have been "ready to launch" for several nights. If the forecast changes I'll post an update later in the week.

Good Birding

David (www.woodcreeper.com)