Update: 10/20 @ 6:25 PM

The current wind forecast suggests that migration will not be heavy over the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. The winds over NY and PA are out of the southwest, therefore limiting birds that would otherwise head south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Based on the wind forecast for southern New Jersey and points south, winds should be from the west and maybe even northwest, which could (and should) set off some migration over that region. Since we need birds moving into the area in order to improve birding conditions, new arrivals will be limited to places like Cape May in New Jersey and Bombay Hook in Delaware.

Migration over the Mid-Atlantic

The weather this past week brought with it a very nice diversity of sparrows, some of which were in very high numbers. White-throated sparrows have finally begun to show up in earnest, and dozens of White-crowned sparrows were reported from many locations from Maine down through Virginia. The Lincoln's sparrow is one of my favorite species (and one that I had only seen once while living in Florida) so getting to see over a dozen last week really got me excited. Savannah, Song, Field, and Chipping rounded out the lot, with Dark-eyed Juncos also showing up at many localities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic (although not yet in my yard!). More of both Kinglets have arrived in large numbers recently, and Red-breasted Nuthatches and Pine Siskins have made it into the Southeast over the last few days; a good sign of things to come this winter. Several million raptors (mostly Broad-winged and Swainson's Hawks) have made their way south through Veracruz Mexico, which reminds me that we should be looking up for our late fall raptors such as Golden Eagles and Northern Goshawks, as well as the beginning of Red-tailed Hawk migration. Let's see what the weather has in store for us through the weekend and early next week.

Short-term forecast

A cold front will pass over our region tonight, with southerly winds preceding the front bringing warm, humid air. This will switch to drier westerly winds tomorrow morning after the front moves offshore and high pressure builds in. Right now there are conflicting forecasts for the winds on Saturday night, ranging from northwest to southwest. If they're out of the northwest or west, we might see a good flight, but if they're coming out of the southwest birds will likely stay put. it looks like Don Freiday thinks the winds are going to be favorable. On Sunday night winds will turn southwesterly, as the next cold front approaches, which will shut down migration for a couple of nights.

Long-term outlook

The weather models are unclear as to how fast the next front will reach us, but right now it looks like it should be passing on Tuesday. When the front passes, northwesterly winds will build in behind it and set off the next wave of nocturnal migration.

Birding forecast

With all the sparrows that have recently arrived it's a great time to hit your local sparrow haunt and practice your identification skills while getting great looks at some beautiful birds. West winds will bring raptors to the coastal hawk-watches as well, so make sure you look up once in awhile wherever you're birding. Lack of migration means there could be high densities of birds in good foraging habitat, so keep that in mind when choosing your location. Also, with winds getting gusty as of tomorrow afternoon, try and pick locations that are less affected by west winds if you're looking for songbirds, as they'll tend to be hunkered down and harder to spot . Of course, if Don is right, and birds do take advantage of the west winds on Saturday night, we could see some heavy concentrations along the coast on Sunday morning. I'll update this forecast if it looks like conditions will be favorable, and post the nightly radar on woodcreeper.com so you can see it all in action.

Paul Lehman is back and has posted a new US and Canada migration forecast here. Welcome back Paul!

Good Birding

David (www.woodcreeper.com)