Updated 8:30 PM

"Weather models. HUH! What are they gooood for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again!"

Short-term forecast

Well, the cold front is taking its sweet time, and is now not expected to cross the region until Wednesday night. North winds will build in behind the front either Wednesday night or Thursday morning, setting us up for a big push of new migrants on the following night. For now, though, winds are howling out of the south with no sign of abatement.

Long-term forecast

Friday and Saturday are looking promising as Thursday night should be optimal for migration and birds. Since the weather has been so unpredictable lately, I'll hold off for now and wait out the passing of this huge front.

Birding forecast

Right now there are plenty of sparrows, kinglets, freshly arrived juncos, and truckloads of Palm and Yellow-rumped warblers around the region. Hence, this is a great time to get out there and spend a few hours enjoying the subtle beauty of sparrow plumage, especially with the high species diversity, variation in age and sexual dimorphism, and possibility of multiple subspecies. After a few more weeks, many of these wonderful birds will have either moved on, or been reduced to much lower numbers; so get out there now while the getting is good! I've modified the birding forecast slightly to reflect the changing weather patterns. Wednesday or Thursday night should be good for migration across the entire region, with a general N-->S flow spreading birds across both inland and coastal locations. These birds will likely remain into the weekend, making for some good birding on Friday and Saturday…just in time for the big Autumn Weekend in Cape May! As we get closer to the weekend, I'll post an updated forecast. In the meantime, you can see the action each morning on woodcreeper.com.

Good Birding

David