Migration has slowed a bit over the last few days, but don't you go getting used to it, because migration into the Mid-Atlantic is about to ramp up, bigtime. A powerful low pressure system is moving slowly northeastward across the Great Lakes, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient as it approaches the east coast. We could see favorable winds in our region as early as Sunday night, improving greatly through Monday and Tuesday. The possibility of rain early in the week could also set us up for some fallout conditions.

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday

By tonight the low pressure system is still expected to be west of the Great Lakes, setting up strong migration conditions over the Mississippi and Central Flyways. The Mid-Atlantic could see winds turn southeasterly as early as tonight which would set off some migration over the region. Winds are expected to remain easterly along the southern half of the Eastern Flyway, reducing the chance of influx into the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

Monday

By Monday night low pressure will be situated over northern Ontario, causing winds over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US to turn southerly. Expect a big push of birds into the region overnight on Monday, with excellent migration conditions extending down through the Carolinas. The forecast is calling for a 50% chance of rain as well, which may produce concentrations of birds along precipitation boundaries.

Tuesday

By Tuesday night the low is expected to be offshore, creating a southwesterly wind gradient from the Gulf Coast all the way up into the Northeastern US. This pattern is very favorable for bringing Trans-Gulf migrants to the region, many of which have been making landfall from the Yucatan over the last couple of night (and more are expected through the weekend). Again, precipitaion is possible on Tuesday night, so keep an eye on the weather to determine the best birding locations for Wednesday morning.

Birding Forecast

As you can see from the migration forecast, we've got some serious birding in store for the Mid-Atlantic! Because of the wind forecast tonight, I wouldn't expect much in terms of new diversity for tomorrow morning, although inland sites should see an increase in individuals given the easterly flow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are really shaping up as the best bets for birding in the region, with the weather on Monday night favoring inland sites, and Tuesday night favoring coastal locations. Again, with the prospect of precipitation it will pay off to check the weather before heading out, to see if and where birds were forced to land.


You can find the latest weather radar and migration analysis each morning on my website, www.woodcreeper.com, your one-stop-shop for pre-birding decisions in and around New Jersey.


Good Birding,

David La Puma