Migration Recap

Last weekend we saw a strong front push through the region, allowing many birds to leave the mid-Atlantic on their northerly pursuit, but also bringing with it plenty of the expected species and a few surprises. Of the kinglets, Ruby-crowned are beginning to make their presence felt, as the large flocks of Golden-crowned are heading north. Eastern Phoebes are everywhere now, and Tree Swallows are already defending territories. Chipping Sparrows have joined the party, as have Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers (in the southern part of the region, at least). Still Common Redpolls are being spotted at local feeders, while I received a very early report of four Indigo Buntings visiting a feeder on Tuesday, in Hackettstown, New Jersey.

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

By Thursday night - light south winds will build in as a cold front approaches from the west. Moist air will travel up the front, destabilizing the atmosphere over the region, and leading to a chance of thunderstorms. Because of the unstable weather to the south, I don't expect much migration into the region, therefore migration will likely result in a net-loss of birds from the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will lead to heavy precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic, and possibly some snow/sleet inland. Similar to last week, Friday night will produce a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic. This should allow for a good influx of southern migrant as far north as Virgina, and possibly further depending on the severity of regional precipitation.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northwesterly. Migration over the northern part of the region will cease at this point, but migration to the south could give us a glimpse of things to come during the next front early next week.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Migration out of the region, coupled with little to no influx of new birds, should result in a decline in apparent migrants at most locations. Because of the southeasterly flow, inland sites in the northern region may pick up some new birds by morning and will therefore be the best bet for bird density on Friday. The forecasted rain may make for unfavorable birding conditions anyway.

Saturday Morning

After a night of southwesterly winds it will be good to check the radar and decide whether birds did, indeed, migrate through the rain. If not, the conditions will remain similar to Friday... but if they did, it'll be important to determine if and when birds were forced to land. Otherwise, the east coast will be favored given the southwesterly flow. The precipitation forecast for Saturday morning? RAIN RAIN RAIN.

Sunday Morning

Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around since the forecast is calling for NW winds and clear skies. Birding conditions will be contingent on whether birds were able (willing?) to push through the precipitation into the region.

I'll update this forecast on Sunday by noon (unless things change drastically beforehand) but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma