Weekend Outlook

It's very easy to over-analyze the weather, and the next couple of days have been particularly frustrating (not to mention last night... don't get me started). The bottom line is we have a cold front approaching the region from the west (as most of our fronts do) and one offshore to our east. In the middle (where we are) we have two high pressure systems (one to our south, and one two our north). Because winds blow from high to low pressure and we're sandwiched between four systems, our winds 'don't know where to turn', resulting in a relatively stable and calm climate but less-than-certain conditions for migration. While migration over the next few nights will be dictated by this 'weather tango', the current outlook is good for new arrivals and a steady increase in density. The ability to predict precipitation seems as much or more uncertain as the winds, so for right now we'll bank on no precipitation, and migrants being well dispersed across the landscape upon landing. With that long caveat, I give you my latest migration forecast:

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

Winds aloft (3000 ft) should be out of the northwest and west over most of the region, with winds being variable to southerly at the surface. With clear skies for easy navigation, we should see a push of birds into and over the region tonight. Surface winds will vary between west and southeast, so I'll advise checking the radar during the night to determine which direction birds decided to migrate.

Something to note is the strong southerly flow up the Mississippi and Central flyways on Thursday night, coupled with strong upper-level winds from the west blowing over Pennsylvania and New York. It seems possible that some of the Trans-Gulf migrants making their way up these more westerly flyways could be redirected into the eastern mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

On Friday night the winds along the coast are forecast to be northwesterly, while inland they appear to be variable at best. Again, this could lead to another influx of birds on clear skies depending on how many migration-ready birds are around.

Saturday Night

Saturday night appears to have the best chance for a big flight, as the cold front should be close enough to the mid-Atlantic to create a southerly wind gradient at the interface between the low and high pressure systems. The precipitation forecast for Saturday night is very uncertain, so for now we'll bet on migrants having a clear shot over the region.

Birding Forecast

Friday - Sunday

With three nights of migration on our agenda, the birding should be good throughout the weekend. Because I don't expect any significant precipitation on any of the next three nights, birds will be well dispersed across the landscape and concentrated only where they overshoot the coast or along the major riparian and montane flyways. Stick to the tried-and-true spring migration hotspots and you shouldn't be disappointed. Since birding conditions depend on the number of birds entering the area, I would expect that Sunday would have the greatest apparent density and diversity of the weekend, but as I said before, the strong southerly flow over the southern US on Thursday night could help bring some interesting birds into the region for Friday morning. Blue skies are still on the agenda at least into Saturday, so get out there and enjoy the beautiful birds and weather!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma