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May is right around the corner, but even without a calendar you could probably have guessed the date just by checking out your local woodlot. Raptor migration is kicking off with increasing numbers of falcons and accipiters being reported over the mid-Atlantic. Short-distance migrants continue to thin out, while long-distance migrants such as vireos, warblers, and flycatchers increase in both diversity and abundance. This is definitely a great time to be birding!
Migration Weather Forecast
Sunday Night
The mid-Atlantic is currently bound by a cold front (to our west) and a warm front (to our north), both of which will be moving east and north respectively, during the day today. Southerly flow over North Carolina will likely trigger migration into southern Virginia, and strong thunderstorms in the early morning on Monday may lead to fallouts there as well. For the rest of the mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, PA, NJ) migration will be light at best.
Monday Night
As the front presses eastward, low pressure dominates the region, and moisture is brought up into the mid-Atlantic, winds will turn southerly and thunderstorm activity may reach severe levels. Fortunately, the current forecast is calling for the most severe thunderstorm activity to end by 8:00am, in enough time for birds to take flight. If this pans out, we could see a very large movement of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night.
Tuesday Night
Winds will turn westerly on Tuesday, and northwesterly on Tuesday night, causing migration to shut down and bringing cold air back across the region.
Birding Forecast
Monday Morning
Migration into the region will be heaviest along the south coast of the mid-Atlantic, decreasing as one moves north over the region. Fallout conditions are possible over southeastern Virginia, but for the rest of the mid-Atlantic there will be little to no influx of new birds.
Tuesday Morning
Migration into the region should be heavy, and the widespread presence of rain will keep birds from migrating very far overnight. Therefore, birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be very good at spring migrant hotspots across the region.
Wednesday Morning
Sometimes no migration is good for birding, and if all plays out as planned, that will be the case for Wednesday morning. Good numbers and diversity of birds should be present at many locations on Wednesday morning, as northwest winds will have kept most birds from moving on Tuesday night.
For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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