Migration Alert for Friday Night - April 4

The weather models have changed for tonight (Friday night), therefore I have decided to update the migration and birding forecasts. Changes have been italicised for easy location. Change is good!!

Migration Recap

Last weekend we saw a strong front push through the region, allowing many birds to leave the mid-Atlantic on their northerly pursuit, but also bringing with it plenty of the expected species and a few surprises. Of the kinglets, Ruby-crowned are beginning to make their presence felt, as the large flocks of Golden-crowned are heading north. Eastern Phoebes are everywhere now, and Tree Swallows are already defending territories. Chipping Sparrows have joined the party, as have Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers (in the southern part of the region, at least). Still Common Redpolls are being spotted at local feeders, while I received a very early report of four Indigo Buntings visiting a feeder on Tuesday, in Hackettstown, New Jersey.

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will eventually lead to heavy precipitation moving over the Mid-Atlantic. Similar to last week, Friday night will experience a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic, at least until the progressing front shuts it down sometime during the night. This should allow for a good influx of migrant into the region and increase the chance of LOCALIZED FALLOUTS at the point where the front intercepts migrating birds.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northerly, shutting down migration over the region until the passage of the next front.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

The current weather forecast suggests that good migration conditions will exist across the southeast and Gulf states, with strong southerly flow directing birds into the Mid-Atlantic region. Since a front is forecast to cross the region during the early morning hours, the radar will be the best tool for determining where the front intersects the migration "cloud". The best birding locations will be those at the intersection. Since the overnight winds are going to be out of the southwest, coastal locations will be favored (such as Sandy Hook in NJ). Rain is expected to persist into Saturday, although most of the rain should have passed beyond the northern part of the region by morning. If all goes as planned (ha!) it should be worth dragging along the added raincoat.

Sunday Morning

When weighing bird density AND comfort, Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around. Bird densities will be highest wherever they ended up Saturday morning, but will also disperse into optimal foraging habitat thorughout the weekend (such as Belleplain State Forest in New Jersey).

I'll update this forecast on Sunday by noon (unless things change drastically beforehand) but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma