Updated 4/11/08

MIGRATION ALERT FOR MD, DE, PA, and NJ: Heavy migration last night will produce great birding conditions this morning (at least before the heavy rains begin). Spring migrant traps (such as Garret Mountain or Belleplain State Forest in NJ) should be the best bets for coastal states, as no weather was present to concentrate birds. For the interior states, areas along the frontal boundary which experienced heavy rainfall early this morning should be best.

Updated 4/9/08

Changes in the weather forecast over the last 24 hours have lead me to update the migration and birding forecasts. Be on alert for strong migration tonight (Wednesday night) and the possibility of good birding tomorrow and Friday.

Migration Recap

As far as nocturnal migration goes, we are officially in a 'holding pattern', and have been since last weekend. High pressure over the region has set up a northeasterly flow and reduced the chance of migration into the Mid-Atlantic, while a stationary front over the Ohio Valley has allowed birds an inland passage into the Northeast.

Despite the recent dry spell, the birding across the Mid-Atlantic is pretty great right now, with many songbirds piling up in anticipation of migration, as well as many non-songbirds actively migrating throughout the region. Great Blue Herons and Great Egrets are showing up in good numbers, and the views of Red-throated loons can be downright awesome, with double-digit groups viewable at coastal locations such as the Concrete Ship in Cape May. On the songbird front, early warblers such as Pine, Yellow-throated and Louisiana Waterthrush are on territories, while Palms are just beginning to move through the region. If all the migration going on in the southern half of the country is any indication, we're in store for a real wallop of birds over the next ten days. Bring on the cold fronts!

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

No migration expected given northwest winds.

Wednesday Night

A cold front will cross the region overnight, causing winds to turn south and southwesterly during the night and early morning. This front has already produced heavy migration across the Central and Mississippi Flyways, as well as the western portion of the Eastern Flyway (on Tuesday night), therefore I expect the same to occur over the greater Eastern Flyway on Wednesday night. This should result in a heavy influx of birds overnight.

Thursday Night

The front that passed on Wednesday night will probably stall over the region on Thursday, and winds will differ in relation to the frontal boundary. Migration conditions should be favorable south of the front (which is expected to bisect the region over central New Jersey), whereas northwest winds will build in to the north. Identifying this boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

Friday Night

By Friday a second (and stronger) cold front will be approaching from the west. This will set up a strong southerly wind gradient along the east coast, and open up the potential for another big push into the region.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Minus a few birds from the northern part of the region that might get out on easterly winds on Tuesday night, conditions should remain pretty much the same as the last few days. Based on the radar from this morning, it appears that the front approached the region faster than anticipated. Birds did migrate along the western half of the Eastern Flyway, bringing new birds up into Pennsylvania, Maryland, western Virginia, and western New Jersey.

Thursday Morning

Thursday morning has great birding potential, based on the patterns of migration already caused by the approaching front. I'll go with the optimistic forecast for now, and hope for southwest winds to guide birds into the region from the Delmarva Peninsula. Given the wind direction and lack of precipitation in the forecast the best places for finding birds, then, will be spring migrant traps such as Garret Mountain (in central NJ), Sandy Hook (north coast of NJ), and Long Beach, Long Island (NY).

Friday Morning

With a backing warm front and southeast winds, we could see an influx of birds into the southern part of the region. Identification of the frontal boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

4/11/08: I have posted the most recent conditions to www.woodcreeper.com.

Because of the model uncertainty I'll be updating this forecast as conditions change, so check back often!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma