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Migration Weather Forecast
As the intense low pressure system moves offshore today, northerly winds will shut down migration into the mid-Atlantic... but it won't last long. Another cold front will approach the eastern seaboard by Wednesday, setting up southerly flow and triggering migration over the region by Wednesday evening. As high pressure over the southeast will interact with low pressure along the frontal boundary to set up a second night of migration for Thursday night. With plenty of birds already in the region, and more on the way, the birding conditions are really looking good!
Tuesday Night
Winds were originally forecast to be northerly, but have instead backed off to calm. Migration is moderate to heavy as of 10:07pm on Tuesday night.
Wednesday Night
The next cold front will approach the region on Wednesday, setting up a southwesterly flow along its leading edge. After several nights of poor migration conditions, Wednesday night should see a good push of birds into and out of the mid-Atlantic.
Thursday Night
So far the models show the latest cold front moving slowly across the region between Wednesday and Friday, so Thursday night is also looking good for migration. High pressure over the Southeast should add some westerly flow over the region, pushing birds northeastward across the mid-Atlantic.
Birding Forecast
Wednesday Morning
Moderate to heavy migration on Tuesday night, coupled with clear skies, will result in migrants being distributed across the landscape. Therefore, spring migrant traps will produce the best birding conditions on Wednesday morning.
Thursday Morning
All fingers are crossed for a big night of migration from Wednesday into Thursday. So far the wind forecast is calling for light southerlies on Wednesday night, and a slight chance of showers for Thursday morning. I don't see this bit of precipitation doing much to concentrate birds, so expect the best birding locations at tried-and-true spring migration hotspots.
Friday Morning
Southwest flow over Thursday night will likely bring another push of birds into the region on Friday morning. With the addition of westerly winds, we should see concentrations of migrants at coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in northeastern New Jersey). The forecast is again calling for a slight chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday, which may slow migrants down, but should do little to concentrate them. Throw the umbrella in the car, and get out there and bird!
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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