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Migration Weather Forecast
Two cold fronts will make quick passes over the region this weekend, bringing west and southwest winds to the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and Sunday nights. Expect moderate to heavy migration over the weekend, with more moderate movements of birds early next week as winds slacken and the skies clear.
Saturday Night
West winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft will trigger moderate to heavy levels of migration over the mid-Atlantic. While some rain showers are forecast to move through the region overnight, none are expected to be severe enough to cause fallout conditions tomorrow. Still, rain may slow some birds down and lead to heavier concentrations by Sunday morning.
Sunday Night
By Sunday night the cold front will be pressing up against the east coast, causing a strong southwesterly wind gradient and triggering heavy migration throughout the region. More rain is expected on Sunday night, but as with Saturday night, it will probably not be enough to cause any fallouts for Monday morning.
Monday Night
After the front passes on Monday, high pressure will turn winds northwest, effectively shutting down migration, even if only for one night.
Tuesday Night
A front extending across the southeastern US will set up westerly winds and heavy precipitation to our south (across the Carolinas). While this will restrict migrants from entering the mid-Atlantic from the southeast, light and variable winds over our region will allow for migrants to take flight from Virginia to New Jersey.
Birding Forecast
Sunday Morning
With moderate levels of migrants taking flight on Saturday night, expect new birds to arrive at spring migration hotspots on Saturday morning. Westerly flow should push birds to the coast, with locations experiencing birds returning to land in the late morning.
Monday Morning
Sunday night is looking good for some heavy migration, so we should see a good push of new arrivals on Monday morning. Heavy rains early Monday morning could cause localized concentrations of birds wherever storms occur, so keep an eye out on the weather radar for Monday morning.
Tuesday Morning
No migration is expected on Monday night, so birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be similar to those from the previous day.
Wednesday Morning
Migration on Tuesday night should be on a more south-->north trajectory, and in the absence of precipitation, birds will be dispersed across the landscape by morning. The best bets, therefore, will be tried and true spring migrant traps.
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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