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Updated on 5/6/08 at 5:42pm:
The forecast for Tuesday night has changed from north winds to light westerlies which will persist all the way down into the Carolinas. Therefore I've updated the migration forecast for Tuesday night to include a moderate push of birds into the region, and increased the probability of birds overshooting the coast on Thursday morning. Otherwise we're still right on track for a big push of birds into the region on Wednesday night, as the front advances to the coast. The birding conditions continue to impress... so get out there and enjoy the fun!
Migration Weather Forecast
Alright! The Central, Mississippi and Eastern flyways have each been experiencing some heavy migration over the last few nights, bringing many birds into the northern reaches of the United States and Canada. The result has been a great increase in both diversity and density across the mid-Atlantic region, and the best birding conditions we have seen this spring. Single-digit "warbler days" have turned to double-digits, and spring migration "hotspots" such as Garret Mountain, in New Jersey, are really living up to their reputation with reports of "wave after wave of birds overhead" eventually coming over the mountain and "swarming like insects" before landing. If you haven't experienced this type of migration spectacle (an in my opinion, you really must) you should have a chance by the end of this week!
As for the forecast, the cold front responsible for the latest migration events has now pushed to our east, while the resulting high pressure has set up northwest winds across the mid-Atlantic. Northerly upper-level and surface winds are forecast to persist until Wednesday morning, which will lead to little or no migration until after mid-week. The next cold front is forecast to arrive on Wednesday night, setting us up for some heavy migration into Thursday morning.
Sunday Night
Northwest winds, both aloft and at the surface, should keep migration to a minimum on Sunday night.
Monday Night
A weak front will push down from Canada on Monday, but is expected to dissipate over the region overnight. This will set up light westerly winds and probably allow for a small movement of birds over the region. So far I wouldn't expect much in terms of incoming birds, but we could see some shorter-distance migration events.
Tuesday Night
Winds will be light westerly over the entire mid-Atlantic, setting us up for a moderate push of birds into the region. The direction and strength of the westerly winds will determine how far birds get pushed to the coast, but we could see some overshooting at places like Sandy Hook.
Wednesday Night
Here comes the next cold front! The front is expected to move into the region on Wednesday night, and if it does, expect southerly flow to arrive in advance of it. Wednesday night should be the next big flight into the mid-Atlantic.
Birding Forecast
Monday Morning
Birding conditions are great right now! Don't be fooled by the "at-a-glance" forecast; that's only indicating that no new birds are expected to arrive on Monday morning. In reality, all the new birds that arrived over the last few nights will make birding on Monday an easy diversion from going to work.
Tuesday Morning
The possibility that west winds on Monday night could trigger some migration, will mean that birds may shift eastward on Tuesday morning. Birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic will be good on Tuesday morning, while diversity will most likely remain similar to the last few days.
Wednesday Morning
With moderate levels of migration on a clear night, we should see some turnover at spring migrant traps, with older birds having moved out overnight, and new ones arriving by Wednesday morning. Stick to the spring migrant traps for the best birding, and depending on the amount of west wind in the morning, consider heading to coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in New Jersey).
Thursday Morning
Thursday morning will be the one to look out for, with heavy migration into the region expected. Thus far the models are not predicting any precipitation overnight, so birds will be well dispersed across the landscape by morning. Southwest winds will push birds to the northeast, and migration should be widespread across the entire mid-Atlantic, therefore the tried-and-true spring migrant hotspots will be the best bet for Thursday morning.
For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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