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Migration Weather Forecast
"And the winds they go a-round-and-round, round-and-round, round-and-round..."
If you've been watching the weather, you know that Florida is experiencing a real spinner right now, with Tropical Storm Fay blowing down trees and dumping copious amounts of rain. What you might not have noticed, though, is that we've had our own little wind shift here over the mid-Atlantic as the latest cold front has pushed offshore and high pressure is building in with winds from the northwest. Tonight you can expect the next push of southbound migrants to reach the region and birding conditions to improve over the next couple of days.
Tuesday Night
The current wind analysis for the mid-Atlantic shows westerlies still persisting over MD, DE and southern NJ, while northwesterlies are already present from central NJ and PA, northward. Expect the northwest winds to build in across the entire region by this evening, and possibly even turn northerly by tomorrow morning. Clear skies and a tailwind; that's a recipe for widespread migration.
Wednesday Night
As high pressure moves east, winds will turn more northerly, and eventually make a full clockwise swing around to the south, where they'll probably be Wednesday night. Don't fret, though, because the surface winds are forecast to be light, while the winds aloft (~1000-3000 feet) are forecast to be out of the northeast, keeping open the possibility for some migration.
Thursday Night
By Thursday night the high pressure cell should be right over NJ, and winds will likely be slack. Given how early it still is, I'm going to be a little conservative and figure that most of the birds that were migration-ready took off on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and that by Thursday, most will be sticking around... but we'll have to see how the conditions pan out between now and then, and possibly revise the forecast accordingly.
Friday Night
With high pressure offshore, winds should turn easterly and possibly southeasterly on Friday night. I'm not expecting anything to move on Friday night given these conditions. Again, this will require some revisiting should the high pressure move faster or slower, affecting wind direction which could lead to more or less migration activity.
Birding Forecast
Wednesday Morning
The best bet for the week so far. Steady northerlies will push birds down from the northeastern US into the mid-Atlantic, making fall migration hotspots the place to be on Wednesday. If the winds stick to the northwesterly projection, we could see very good numbers at places such as Cape May and Sandy Hook, NJ. Again, without any weather barriers to cause localized fallouts, the best bets will be those areas known to produce good birding conditions during the fall.
Thursday Morning
Expect a smaller push of birds arriving on northeast winds Thursday morning, this time favoring the inland locations such as Chimney Rock (NJ) and the Delaware River watershed (NJ and PA).
Friday Morning
While still quite tentative, the current forecast suggests little or no migration on Thursday night, therefore conditions on Friday should be similar to Thursday morning.
Saturday Morning
Saturday morning is looking a whole lot like Friday morning... which is looking a whole lot like Thursday morning... the big difference being that if you're not independently wealthy, retired, or on summer vacation, you probably had to wait until today to go birding. For those of you (us) who fit that shoe, here's to ya!
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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