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Migration Weather Forecast
High pressure has begun to build in across the mid-Atlantic, following the most recent cold front which moved offshore during the day today. The current overcast sky notwithstanding, we are getting ready for a week's worth of starry nights and prime wind conditions across the region. Given we're nearing the end of August, it's worth taking a moment to note some of the great birds currently being reported. Shorebirds have stolen the show of late, with Baird's and buff-breasted sandpipers, marbled godwits, American golden plovers, and red-necked and Wilson's phalaropes showing up at multiple locations across PA, NJ, DE and NY. Today a Red-necked Stint, a very rare vagrant to to the US from Eurasia, was discovered at 2-Mile Landing, in Cape May, NJ. You can find out more about this very special bird by following this link to the birdcapemay.org sightings page.
The combination of great birds, heavy migration, and beautiful weather will surely make this Labor Day weekend a very tempting excuse for a birding excursion!
Saturday Night
The week of migration begins with light and variable winds on Saturday night. While the air might still feel sopping wet, the upper level winds have already turned northerly and birds will indeed take to the sky tonight. Expect heavy migration across the northeast and mid-Atlantic tonight as the winds pick up out of the north and the skies clear.
Sunday Night
Expect more migration on Sunday night, as northwest winds build in due to the strengthening high pressure. Given the optimal conditions, the entire region will likely see some turnover of birds as some leave while others arrive.
Monday Night
As of right now, the forecast is calling for a strengthening low pressure system over Nova Scotia, which will interact with the high positioned over the region, causing a strengthening of northerly winds over the mid-Atlantic. The amount of east in the wind will dictate the general direction of migration, but regardless of the minor trajectory, expect more migration for the region.
Tuesday Night
As high pressure moves east, and the low off of Nova Scotia strengthens and moves west, the wind gradient between the two will kick up strong northwesterlies over the region. Expect another night of heavy migration for the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night.
Birding Forecast
Sunday & Monday Morning
Now that I've gotten you all excited, I have to state the one big caveat of all of this migration activity. As of right now, the forecast is for a "migration superhighway" right through the region, without any weather-related barriers to cause localized concentrations. North winds on Saturday and Sunday night will mean dispersed migrants across the region on Sunday and Monday morning. Moderate levels of migrants will be apparent at fall migration hotspots across the region on both days, with the possibility of some build-up on Monday as new birds arrive and less birds are prepared to leave.
Tuesday Morning
With the possibility of northeast winds we could see migrants piling into inland migrant traps such as along the Watchung Mountains (NJ), along the Delaware River (PA/NJ), and along the northern Delaware Bay shore (NJ).
Wednesday Morning
For those of you along the east coast, who felt left out by the northeast winds on Monday night, your day should be Wednesday morning when strong northwesterlies push migrants towards the coast. Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park and Cape May should all be good bets for New Jersey, while Bombay Hook in Delaware will be a good pick for those near the Delmarva peninsula.
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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