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Migration Weather Forecast
Mid-September is officially upon us, and whether the autumnal equinox is a week away or not, fall migration is ramping into high gear. The last couple of weeks have seen several cold fronts cross the region, and several waves of migrants move through the mid-Atlantic, but the real fun is only just beginning. While migration conditions are near-perfect, this does come with a trade-off. Since the atmosphere will remain extremely clear this week, birds will be migrating unimpeded into the weekend. For those of you going birding this will mean having to choose your locations wisely, based on their reliability during fall migration. No major fallouts are expected, although the entire region should see a marked increase in bird abundance over the next couple of days.
Monday Night
Definitely the biggest night of migration so far this fall, as winds across the entire eastern half of the United States are favorable. Expect heavy migration across the mid-Atlantic with a huge influx of new birds into the region, as well as a major exodus of migration-ready birds heading south.
Tuesday Night
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will turn the local winds light northeasterly, which should trigger a second night of heavy migration over the region.
Wednesday Night
Winds slacken a bit on Wednesday night, but continue to come from the northeast over most of the mid-Atlantic, bringing with them more birds.
Thursday Night
As dominant high pressure begins to interact with a cold front over central Canada, the northwest wind gradient across the mid-Atlantic will intensify, triggering another night of heavy migration.
Birding Forecast
Tuesday Morning
Cape May. Hands down. With northwest winds on tap, and the magnitude of migration so huge, these are the conditions that make Cape May one of the premier birding locations during Fall migration. Couple that with the potential for an excellent raptor flight tomorrow, and you can't go wrong.
Wednesday Morning
You're better off heading inland on Wednesday, as northeast winds will surely push migrants in that direction. Head for Chimney Rock (NJ) for some raptor viewing and a good chance at diverse feeding flocks of warblers. Or, you can head to Hawk Mountain (PA) where there's sure to be a good flight of Broad-winged Hawks among other birds.
Thursday Morning
For Thursday the forecast shows little in the way of a wind effect, which probably means that birds will be heading due south with little in terms of a tail-wind. Expect migrants to be dispersed across the landscape on Thursday, with the tried-and-true migration hot spots providing the best "bang for your buck". Note that after three nights of heavy migration, even the parking lot at Wawa can have some good birds, so don't neglect your local patch on Thursday morning.
Friday Morning
Another night of heavy migration will benefit Cape May and other coastal areas. While not as intense as Tuesday morning, the birding in Cape May could be great on Friday, if the westerly component to wind continues. Check the local conditions for Sandy Hook (NJ) and Cape May to determine whether the winds turned easterly, in which case, head inland. Otherwise enjoy the migration spectacle along the coast.
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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