At-a-Glance Forecast

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Tropical storm Hanna made her way up the eastern seaboard over the last couple of days, and now spins off the coast of Maine on its way out to sea. The storm brought strong southerly winds to the region late last week which resulted in some nice sightings across the mid-Atlantic coast including Sooty Shearwaters off of Cape May, NJ, and Red-necked Phalaropes at Sandy Hook, NJ. On Saturday night, as Hanna vacated the mid-Atlantic, the winds turned northwesterly and triggered widespread nocturnal migration across the region, which will likely continue through the beginning of this week.

Another big happening this week was the launching of our new live radar map at the top of the page. You can use this feature to check the current radar against any forecast conditions, and see how migration is playing out across the mid-Atlantic region. Thanks to Michael Mills at the Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (Rutgers University) for his magic-like programming skills which built the map, and to Laura Guerard from CMBO for being so supportive of new ideas, and so creative at implementing them. While many of us contribute to the site, it would never be successful without Laura's hard work.

Sunday Night

Winds will be westerly, with just enough northwest component to set off another big push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night. Whereas on Saturday night the majority of migration was south of NJ, Sunday night will be good for migration across the entire region.

Monday Night

Winds will continue to blow out of the west on Monday night, but should turn southwesterly as the night progresses, in response to the approaching cold front. It's possible we could see some widespread migration early in the evening, but expect it to thin out as the wind shifts.

Tuesday Night

Southwest winds were expected to dominate on Tuesday night, but instead winds are westerly and birds are moving southeast over the region.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will pass over the region during the day on Wednesday and strong northwest winds will build in for Wednesday night. This cold front should have some heavy precipitation associated with it, so we'll need to keep an eye on it for possible fallout conditions. Expect heavy migration across the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night, but as far as forecasting the fallout potential I'll have to update the forecast as we approach the mid-week.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Heavy migration on northwest winds and clear skies will mean lots of birds being dispersed across the region on Monday morning. Head for the coast if you can, or stick with locations known for being good birding locations in the Fall. Cape May will be a great pick in New Jersey, as will Bombay Hook in Delaware.

Tuesday Morning

With west winds forecast for Monday night expect coastal locations to shine again on Tuesday. Since winds will eventually turn southwesterly on Monday night, migration should not be as heavy and the number of new birds entering the mid-Atlantic will be fewer.

Wednesday Morning

Since a moderate flight is going on at the time of this updated forecast, expect some new birds especially at coastal locations on Wednesday morning. The composition will likely be strong fliers like blackbirds and thrushes, rather than warblers, but the westerly component to the wind should push most of them eastward.

Thursday Morning

Based on the current forecast we could see localized fallout conditions on Thursday morning. The conditions we're expecting are strong northwesterly winds behind the frontal boundary, which should be stretched across the eastern seaboard on Wednesday night. As birds migrate towards the frontal boundary they may encounter heavy precipitation and unstable headwinds, therefore pinpointing the location of this front will be crucial to predicting the location of fallout conditions. I'll update the forecast on Wednesday in order to better predict the birding conditions for Thursday.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma