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Migration Weather Forecast
Spring migration has been underway now for about about a month, and the early signs of Neotropical arrivals have begun to make landfall along the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula. It'll be a few weeks before we see these birds in any appreciable numbers, but it's fun to think about in the meantime. While the superhighway between the Yucatan and Gulf states has been very active over the last week, we're finally getting some conducive weather to bringing birds into (and beyond) the mid-Atlantic. High pressure which had been dominating the region, will move east over the Atlantic on Wednesday and make way for the next cold front arriving on Thursday. This will bring southerly flow on both Wednesday and Thursday nights, and set us up for an influx of new birds from the south. Precipitation will begin late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday, eventually tapering off by Friday morning when high pressure builds back in behind the front. Before you can say "hey, where did the south winds go?", they'll be back, as a second low-pressure system arrives on Saturday.
Wednesday Night
Light southerly winds are forecast across the southeast and mid-Atlantic US on Wednesday evening, opening up the region for a moderate pulse of early migrants. Coastal states will be under lighter winds with an easterly component, whereas states to the west (such as western Pennsylvania) will experience stronger southerly flow and therefore more migrant traffic.
Thursday Night
As far as winds are concerned, by Thursday night the conditions should be optimal across the entire mid-Atlantic region (steady southerlies). The real determining factor will be the distribution and intensity of precipitation. The current forecast shows precipitation to be widespread but light across the mid-Atlantic, therefore setting the stage for favorable migration conditions.
Friday Night
By Friday night the cold front will have passed to our east and north winds will have built in behind it. Expect migration conditions to deteriorate until the next cold front approaches on Saturday.
Saturday Night
Double whammy! So far it looks like the next low pressure system will make it to the region on Saturday, with southerly winds on tap for Saturday night... get ready for another flight!
Birding Forecast
Thursday Morning
We should see some new birds on the ground Thursday morning, especially within the western mid-Atlantic region. With southerly flow forecast throughout the day, keep your eye to the sky for diurnal raptors heading north.
Friday Morning
If everything pans out as predicted, we should see another arrival of new birds on Friday morning (and may notices some conspicuous absences of winter regulars from your local haunts). With the clearing skies on Friday and highs in the 60's, the birding conditions will be beautiful. This is a good time to familiarize yourself with the spring hotspots in your area, and who knows, you might just spot an early arrival fresh off the migration superhighway!
Saturday Morning
With no migration forecast for the previous night, things ought to be similar to Friday.
Sunday Morning
After another night of migration, we should see some new birds on Sunday morning. Judging by the southeasterly component to the winds, inland sites should be best (this is the typical spring trend as well). Southerly flow will persist on Sunday making it another good day for hawk-watching.
As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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