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Migration Weather Forecast
This past weekend made clear that spring migration has transitioned into high gear. Winds at high altitudes (3000+ feet), where migrating landbirds tend to fly, were strong and northerly; not ideal for migration. On the surface, though, we had several nights of either southerly, or southwesterly winds, which allowed for birds to fly low and take advantage of a tailwind. On any given night in March I would not have expected to see birds take off under such conditions, but no that we're midway through April, with hormones a-raging, birds are making their bid for the breeding grounds. It's every bird for themselves!
Over the weekend we saw a whole suite of Neotropical migrants show up in Southern New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and parts of New York. The more migratory ruby-crowned kinglets have begun to outnumber their golden-crowned counterparts; In South Jersey, northern waterthrushes, having returned to the breeding grounds over the last two weeks, are now being joined by ovenbirds, and prothonotary warblers. Some early migrants such as black-and-white warbler, blue-headed vireo, warbling vireo, black-throated green warbler, and hooded warbler have also made appearances across the mid-Atlantic. Judging by the weather forecast, we should be seeing more of these and other Neotropical migrants in the coming week.
Monday Night
Winds at all altitudes will have a southeasterly component on Monday night, increasing the chance of migration into the mid-Atlantic, though severe thunderstorms across PA and NJ will be prevent much of anything from moving in or out. Heavy migration from Virginia into the Delmarva and as far north as Cape May NJ will be in effect.
Tuesday Night
The forecast is again favorable for widespread migration on Tuesday night, as the front pushes toward the east coast. Southwesterly flow and clear(er) skies should trigger a big flight into and out-of the region, with the possibility of some disruptions due to isolated but strong thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
By Wednesday night the front and most of the thunderstorm activity will have moved out, and the new forecast shows winds turning northwesterly as high pressure builds over the region. Update Wed. @ 9:04pm: Winds have not turned entirely NW, and so there appears a chance for some migration over the region.
Thursday Night
Northwest winds continue through Thursday night, and therefore keep birds stationary until Friday night when the next front approaches.
Birding Forecast
Tuesday Morning
Thunderstorm activity may cause some localized concentrations on Tuesday morning, limited primarily to the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey. Belleplain, already teaming with newly arrived breeders, will be a good place to find diversity, as will the Cape May peninsula. Keep an eye to the sky on Tuesday, as the strong southerly winds should trigger a raptor flight during the daylight hours.
Wednesday Morning
Quite the contrary to Tuesday, surface winds on Wednesday will be blowing out of the southwest. This should bring more birds to the coast for Wednesday morning, but migration will be widespread enough to impact most locations. Again, Wednesday should be another decent day for raptors, although cooler temps and cloud cover will probably limit thermal activity.
Thursday Morning
Updated Wed. @ 9:04pm: Some new migrants should be present on Thursday morning, as winds on Wednesday night remain light and southwesterly. Birds will be dispersed across the landscape as no strong winds or precipitation are forecast to influence the migration trajectory. Tried and true spring hotspots will be the best bet. Get out there and see some birds!
Friday Morning
Expect little to no change from Thursday given the lack of migration potential on Thursday night.
Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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