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Migration Weather Forecast
"Get ready to ruuuuummmmmmbbbbbllllleeeeee"
The biggest flights of the spring are lining up this weekend, and with the climbing temperatures we should have some excellent birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic. With a strong cold front extending from Canada down the Ohio Valley, southwesterly winds are forecast to dominate the region through Tuesday. While the result will likely favor the birds over the birder, spring migrant traps will be hopping with new diversity and greater abundance than they have thus far.
Friday Night
These are the nights that we dream about as the winter comes to a close. If you checked the radar last night, you saw widespread migration from the Gulf Coast up into the Great Lakes region, and from Florida up into northern Virginia. The only place relatively absent of migration was the northern mid-Atlantic and the northeast, owing to the persistence of northwesterly winds. Well, these pesky winds have moved out of the region and the southerly flow has begun. Expect migration over the mid-Atlantic to be heavy and widespread on Friday night.
Saturday Night
And the beat goes on... Saturday night will see moderate southwesterly winds, as the low pressure and associated cold front remain to our west. The migration superhighway continues to bring new birds to the mid-Atlantic, while allowing those who are migration-ready to head further north.
Sunday Night
As the low pressure moves further east, and the high pressure dominating our region heads south, we should see winds turning more westerly, and possibly a bit northwest. For now most models predict west winds, and so I'm thinking migration will prevail again on Sunday night.
Monday Night
Here we go again! By Monday it looks like the low stalls again to our west and high pressure kicks back in for the east coast, driving those winds back out of the southwest. Expect another night of heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.
Birding Forecast
Saturday Morning
As I said, this series of nights will favor the bird over the birder. Clear skies and a strong tailwind ensure that birds can maximize their nocturnal flight towards the breeding ground. The good news for birders? The sheer volume of birds moving on Friday night will guarantee a good birding day at any spring migrant trap on Saturday morning. With a little west in the wind, coastal hotspots will be a good bet, but all spots should hold new birds regardless. These next three days should be great for diurnal raptor migration, so be sure to keep an eye to the sky during the day.
Sunday Morning
More migration = more birds. As our winter friends clear out, our migrant breeders and seasonal visitors will be arriving in good numbers. Again, stick to the traditional spring migrant traps for the greatest diversity and density.
Monday Morning
West winds on Sunday night should push migrants toward the coast. Cape May, Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook are all good bets in NJ, and are the best places for a raptor flight on Monday.
Tuesday Morning
More unabated migration on Monday night, coupled with southerly winds, means birds will be well dispersed across the landscape on Tuesday. Belleplain, Garret Mountain, the Great Swamp, the Meadowlands; these are all good places within NJ to check out on Tuesday. Again, a good raptor flight is expected for Tuesday as well.
Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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