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Migration Weather Forecast
"All I know she sang a little while and then flew on"
-Robert Hunter
Tuesday Night
High pressure continues to dominate the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it warm southerly flow and more birds than you can shake a stick at (okay, I admit, I've never tried to find out how many birds I could shake a stick at, and if I caught you shaking a stick at birds, I might just ask you to stop... or at least look at you funny). Winds will continue out of the south tonight until the cold front crosses our area after midnight, at which point winds will turn northwesterly and the chance of precipitation will increase. Expect a moderate flight tonight, owing mostly to the lack of migration-ready birds across the region, a result of four nights of continuous flights!
Wednesday Night
The cold front will cross our region on Wedensday morning, and high pressure will build in behind it once again. Winds will turn southeasterly on Wednesday night, which will likely trigger moderate to heavy migration. Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: The warm front to our south, initially expected to prevent birds from moving north into the mid-Atlantic, is going to take a bit longer to arrive. Therefore I have changed the forecast to reflect the increased influx of new birds.
Thursday Night
On Thursday the warm front will make its way north into the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it plenty of rain and diminishing winds. Depending on the amount of precipitation, it's possible that we could see a light push into and out of the region, but the probability is looking low.
Friday Night
On Friday night the cold front will have pushed far enough to the east to set up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Expect a big flight on Friday night. Some models show precipitation arriving in northern NJ on Saturday morning, which could limit the amount of northbound traffic and cause some pileups (of birds, not cars) along the frontal boundary. Right now it's too hard to predict, but otherwise the models show clear skies along the east coast for Friday night.
Birding Forecast
Wednesday Morning
Many birds have begun to set up territories in their breeding grounds through the mid-Atlantic, and so most diverse habitats have a nice selection of birds actively singing and courting regardless of migration. With precipitation arriving around midnight, typically the peak of nocturnal migration, it's worth checking to see how the migration 'cloud' reacts to the presence of rain and/or change in wind direction. Use the live radar map at the top of this page to check it out as it happens. Regardless, the change in winds should act to hold some birds in the mid-Atlantic, and spring hotspots are always a good choice in these situations. The top of Garret Mountain at first light can be a wonderful place to try out your skills with flight calls as birds redirect up the mountain after seeing the likes of West Patterson (great for Peruvian food, not so good for bird habitat). Winds will be northerly throughout the day, so don't expect much in terms of a raptor flight.
Thursday Morning
Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: It looks like we'll see another influx and exodus of birds in and out of the mid-Atlantic for Thursday morning. Rain isn't expected until later in the day, so birds will be widespread. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the highest diversity and abundance.
Friday Morning
Again, not much expected to move on Thursday night, so expect little change on Friday morning.
Saturday Morning
Alright, after two lackluster nights of little-to-no migration, Friday night should open the door to some new arrivals for Saturday morning. Again, check to see whether the rain and wind stopped migrants en route by using the radar at the top of this page. Right now the precipitation forecast is for light rain, although the wind shift may prove to be a more important factor. With most of the east coast under clear skies, hit the tried-and-true spring migration hotspots on Saturday morning.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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