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Migration Weather Forecast
Tuesday Night
Winds will be out of the northwest as high pressure continues over the mid-Atlantic, but still light enough to allow these migration-ready birds to head north into and out of the region.
Wednesday Night
A strong cold front is approaching from the west, and on Wednesday the winds will begin to turn southeasterly in anticipation. Expect widespread migration from Virginia north to Maine.
Thursday Night
The front arrives on Thursday, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Precipitation is forecast for early Friday morning so we could see some concentration in northern NJ and southern NY as birds hit the front. Overall expect heavy migration across the entire region on Thursday night.
Friday Night
Updated 5/15/09: The precipitation has been removed from the forecast as the front that crossed the region last night has dissipated today. Expect moderate to heavy levels of migration tonight on southeast winds and clear skies.
Birding Forecast
Wednesday Morning
Moderate migration into and out of the region will result in a 'thinning out' of the migrant density that we've been experiencing since the weekend. Still, there will be plenty of birds around and the spring migrant traps will provide the best birding conditions after a night of widespread migration.
Thursday Morning
Southeast winds and clear skies mean widespread migration across the region. Tried and true spring migrant traps will be best on Thursday with coastal locations being a good choice given the easterly component to the wind.
Friday Morning
Heavy migration on south winds coupled with a 70% chance of precipitation bodes well for birding on Friday. Expect concentrations to be highest wherever the storms build after midnight and intercept migrating birds.
Update 5/14/09:Thanks to Don Freiday for the email regarding the wind forecast for tonight. As Don noted, winds over Patterson, NJ are forecast to turn NW between 3 and 5 AM Friday morning. This switch in winds will be accompanied by some precipitation, which together will likely lead to fallout conditions. If this scenario plays out, we could see a fallout at Garret Mountain, as well as other areas located along the frontal boundary. Also, with strong west winds building in late tonight, expect coastal hotspots to be hopping tomorrow. The front will not make its way across the entire region, instead it will retreat and dissipate on Friday, so don't worry about precipitation along the coast tomorrow. So, Cape May, Island Beach SP, Sandy Hook (especially), and locations along the frontal boundary with Garret being a likely candidate, will all be good places to be tomorrow morning.
Use the radar at the top of this page to see how and when they plays out, or follow me on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) for updates on Thursday night.
Saturday Morning
Clear skies, southwest winds aloft and southeast winds at the surface means migrants will be widespread by Saturday morning. Hit the tried and true migration hotspots on Saturday morning, which should be easy for everyone down in Cape May for the Spring Weekend. All of Cape May will be good territory to cover, but Belleplain will provide a great mix of both migrants and breeders. Additionally, its proximity to the Delaware Bay shore means you can experience many of the great habitats the region has to offer all with minimium travel time.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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