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Migration Weather Forecast
Saturday Night
A strong cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with minimal fanfare in terms of precipitation. Winds will turn northwesterly and then westerly as high pressure builds in behind it. Expect little migration on Saturaday night for most of the region, given the sub-optimal winds. The exception to this might be the southern end of the region (VA) where the configuration of the front and the southwest winds associated with it could trigger a sizable movement.
Sunday Night
The cold front which passed on Saturday will stall over the Delmarva on Sunday, increasing the chance of precipitation for the region. Despite the precipitation, winds will turn SSE on Sunday afternoon and likely trigger the next push into and out of the region.
Monday Night
By Monday the latest front will have stalled further south of the Delmarva Peninsula, acting as a barrier to migrants making their way from points south. Winds are forecast to turn northerly which should preclude any birds from migrating.
Tuesday Night
On Tuesday the stalled front will dip further south, freeing the mid-Atlantic from the heavy storm activity, but not from the northeasterly winds. Again, this will preclude any migration for Tuesday night as birds wait for some better conditions.
Birding Forecast
Sunday Morning
With little expected to move over most of the region, conditions should remain consistent from previous days (which have been excellent). As birds will be moving into more optimal foraging habitat, head for areas where breeding bird diversity tends to be high, such as Belleplain SF and Black River Wildlife Management Area in New Jersey (click here for a map), or coastal shorebirds locales such as Bombay Hook NWR (DE), Brigantine NWR (NJ), and along the Delaware Bay Shore.
Monday Morning
Some birds will move into and out of the region on Sunday night, as winds will be blowing from the southeast. Spring migrant traps will be the best bet on Monday, with the wind favoring those located inland. Garret Mountain is an obvious choice, but locations along the Delaware river should also be productive on Monday.
Tuesday & Wednesday Morning
With no migration expected on Monday and Tuesday nights, conditions will remain stable from Monday morning. Again, this is a good time to hit some of the diverse breeding grounds across the region as many species have already established territories and more show up each day.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
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