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Migration Weather Forecast
Monday Night
Winds will start off easterly as a warm front slowly moves north into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night. A moderate level of migration is expected in the southern part of the region, just south of the warm front, while light migration is expected further north where the winds are more northeasterly.
Tuesday Night
By Tuesday the warm front will have backed up over the mid-Atlantic, increasing the chance of precipitation and turning winds ESE. Given the more southerly winds, especially at 3000 feet, the chance of migration is looking pretty good.
Wednesday Night
The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, turning winds southerly and increasing the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday night. If thunderstorms hold off until after sunset, we could see heavy migration coupled with the chance of fallout conditions wherever late-night thunderstorms are most intense.
Thursday Night
The latest front will take awhile to cross the mid-Atlantic, which means another night of southerly flow on Thursday. This time, though, it's looking like winds will be southwesterly through early Friday morning when the cold front passes to our east and the winds turn northwest. This bodes well both for heavy migration and for stalling birds over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning.
Birding Forecast
Tuesday Morning
Well, if you don't like rain, Tuesday morning is looking like your best bet for birding during the work week. Not a whole lot of new arrivals are expected on Tuesday but as is typical of the season, there are lots of birds around anyway. With west winds on tap for Tuesday, interior sites will be the best bet. Garret Mountain might be good, but locations with higher breeding bird diversity should be better. A place I've been meaning to check out is Black River WMA, in Morris County, near Chester, NJ. This place is great for breeders, it's inland, and also attracts many migrants. Bill Boyle has a section in his book A Guide to Bird Finding in New Jersey, and the section on Black River just happens to be available for free on Google Books. Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/qmnl53 Of course, if you don't have that book, and you go birding more than once a year in New Jersey, you ought to buy a copy. My copy has lost the cover and most of the binding, is stained throughout with coffee and dead mosquitoes, and covered in scribbled field notes. Along with my New Jersey road atlas, this is my most important asset when birding in the Garden State.
Wednesday Morning
Looks like rain on Wednesday, but who said birding should be a dry event? Expect a new influx of migrants to arrive on Wednesday morning, and with winds out of the southwest we should see the highest densities at inland migrant traps. Garret Mountain would be a good bet, as would any of the spring hotspots on either side of the Delaware River.
Thursday Morning
Heavy migration into and out of the mid-Atlantic is expected for Thursday morning. Keep an eye on the weather to see if heavy thunderstorms have an effect on the migrants en route, because if they do, we could experience some localized fallout conditions. Right now it's too soon to predict, so make sure to follow along on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) where I'll be posting live updates during the night.
Friday Morning
Thursday night will be the last sizable flight before the northwest winds on Friday morning shut things down for awhile. The good news? Friday morning will see plenty of new birds and the return of clear skies and nice weather. Right now the forecast is for winds to be light, which would really make finding birds that much easier. Since birds will be arriving on WSW winds, expect coastal migrant traps to be best on Friday. Sandy Hook is an obvious choice for New Jersey, and Cape May can be great as well.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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