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World Series of Birding Migration Weather Forecast
How's everyone doing on this soggy scout week? Well, the bright side is that the worst of the precipitation is over, and you'll only have to deal with intermittent precipitation as a stationary front backs over us on Wednesday night, and then a series of lows and cold fronts cross the region through the weekend. Each of these events, though, promises to bring more migrants into the mid-Atlantic and increases the likelihood of lots of migrants being around on Saturday.
Wednesday Night
Wednesday night's stationary front will bring some threat of thunderstorms and widespread precipitation up from the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds will be light out of the south, turning southeast by midnight. Heavy migration is expected for the mid-Atlantic and the addition of precipitation may cause migrants to concentrate locally by morning. See the birding forecast below for details.
Thursday Night
The next round of showers will make their way eastward on Thursday night as a weak low pressure system moves toward the coast. Southwest winds will help motivate the eager migrant and we should expect a moderate to heavy push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. West winds into the early hours on Friday will increase the chance of migrants piling up along the coast by morning.
Friday Night
Things clear up during the day on Friday, but a quick moving front will bring a chance of wetness to the region overnight. South winds early on Friday night will again trigger migration into the mid-Atlantic, while by daybreak winds will turn southeasterly favoring inland migrant traps for the World Series of Birding.
Saturday Night
The next cold front is scheduled to move into the region on Saturday, setting up southeasterly flow in advance of the front on Saturday night. This should allow another flight into and out of the region before high pressure builds in on Sunday.
Birding Forecast
Thursday Morning
Migrants + thunderstorms = eager birders.
Right now the models are uncertain as to the amount or intensity of the expected precipitation, but anytime there's a good chance for heavy migration and thunderstorms, you should keep an eye on the radar. Since the precipitation is making its way from the south, we will likely see two migration events take place tonight: the first to the north, moving unimpeded ahead of the front, and the second from the south, migrating into the front. This will likely result in a net loss of migrants in the north (as they move on) and a concentration of migrants in the south (as they hit inclement weather). Therefore, the best birding conditions on Thursday morning will be just south of, or within the, frontal boundary. That said, you'll be best to check the radar tonight and see how this plays out... or follow along on Twitter where I'll be posting regular updates throughout the night (hint: you can read my latest Twitter posts by using the links under the map on this page).
Friday Morning
Despite the precipitation on tap for Thursday evening, it's not looking very intense or organized so far. The one factor that looks to make things interesting, though, is the west wind. With the wind turning more westerly on Friday morning migrants will be pushed toward the coast increasing densities at all coastal migrant traps including Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park, and Brigantine NWR.
Saturday Morning
It's GAME TIME! So if the World Series is the Fall Classic, is the WSOB the Spring Classic? I think it sounds good... I'm gonna run with it.
Southeasterly flow on Friday night will bring new migrants into the mid-Atlantic for Saturday. While the southeast winds will favor inland migrant traps, most locations should see new birds on Saturday morning regardless. Right now it doesn't look like the precipitation will have an appreciable effect on causing birds to land prematurely, so the tried and true migrant traps will be your best bet. Light southeast winds are forecast during the day on Saturday which would bode well for a decent raptor flight.
Sunday Morning
Okay, I've moved out of the bedroom to write this last part. Yeah, if you've got enough cojones to go birding on Mother's Day (or you happen to be a mother, and therefore can dictate whatever happens on Mother's Day), then you'll probably be in good shape for some nice migrant activity. Southeast winds on Saturday night will bring the next push of migrants into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Those of you down in Cape May for the WSOB banquet might hit the Delaware Bay Shore for some new arrivals, while most inland migrant traps across the region will see some good birding conditions as well. Me? Um, I'll be doing some early morning local patch birding (read: "walking the dog") and then it's flowers and pancakes, and occasionally birding by ear from the kitchen window.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good luck on a safe and fun World Series of Birding!
David La Puma (member of the Rutgers Scarlet Knight-herons)
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather, WSOB
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