At-a-Glance Forecast

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wow... I can't believe we're already in June! It seems like just yesterday when I was cursing the cold as I walked my dog and could only pick out the singing White-throated Sparrows over the howling wind. Since then the trees have leafed out, The World Series of Birding has come and gone, and the dawn chorus in the woods behind my house, so recently composed of migrant warblers, is now almost exclusively comprised of breeders. I say 'almost' because my buddy Ben knocked on my door this morning to tell me about a 'life bird' he saw while conducting his annual breeding bird surveys. The bird he saw? A Mourning Warbler! Now, for the last three days I've been in Austin, PA, conducting a Bioblitz at the Austin Dam property, and have seen more Mourning Warblers than I had in all the years leading up to this weekend (they breed pretty heavily in that part of PA). I came back last night, ecstatic, and couldn't wait to tell Ben about the great Mourning show I saw just five hours away from central NJ... well, before I could get a word out Ben had described to me a very similar encounter, only five minutes from my doorstep. Of course I was excited for Ben, but man did that take a bit of excitement out of my story!

So, migration has clearly slowed down with most migrants already having reached their breeding grounds, or very nearly so. It is for that reason this forecast will serve as the last 'regular' update until Fall. As I have in the past, I will occasionally use this space to post interesting tidbits of information regarding migration between now and September, so please come back and visit!

Monday Night

Another front will approach the mid-Atlantic from the west on Monday, which will increase southerly flow on Monday night and trigger migration across the region.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night the front will extend across New Jersey, resulting in winds switching to westerly and then northwesterly by Tuesday night. This, coupled with precipitation, will minimize any migration into the region on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday the front will back up and stall over the region, begin to fall apart a bit, and allow the southerly winds to build in again. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday night which could cause some localized concentrations of migrants.

Thursday Night

On Thursday the remnant front will move east into the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to build in once again, turning winds northerly and reducing any possibility of nocturnal migration.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

It looks like Tuesday should be a nice day for birding. With a new crop of birds scheduled to arrive, and no precipitation expected until later in the day, hitting your favorite migrant trap would be a productive way to spend your morning.

Wednesday Morning

Again, precipitation is forecast for after 11am, so getting out early would be key on Wednesday. Little change is expected from Tuesday morning, so head for areas with high breeder diversity, or check out the tried and true spring migrant spots for birds leftover from yesterday.

Thursday Morning

We could see some localized concentrations on Thursday morning, as birds migrating on Wednesday night encounter thunderstorms en route. Check the radar at the top of this page during the night on Wednesday to see whether birds are flying into heavy precipitation, and whether they're continuing north or landing prematurely. If the latter is apparent, then head to for birding locations at the intersection of birds and thunderstorms, otherwise go for the tried and true spring migrant trap of your choice.

Friday Morning

Friday is looking beautiful in terms of weather. Since nothing is expected to move on Thursday night, you can base your decision on where to go on the reports from the previous day.

If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding, and see you in the Fall!

David

Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather